SOUTH KOREA: Court Re-Issues Arrest Warrant For Pres. Yoon
The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) has confirmed that a South Korean court has re-issued the arrest warrant for President Yoon Suk-yeol This will extend the validity period for the arrest warrant. The first attempt to arrest Yoon at the presidential palace on 3 Jan resulted in a multi-hour standoff between various branches of law enforcement and the military that resulted in the withdrawal of CIO officials, with Yoon remaining free but constrained to the Yongsan Presidential Office. The warrant's re-issuance would indicate that a second attempt to detain Yoon will come in the near future.
- Speaking to the National Assembly’s Legislation and Judiciary Committee earlier today on the topic of the first attempted arrest of Yoon, Commissioner of the CIO Oh Dong-woon offered his apologies for the failure to execute the first arrest warrant, and said "We will thoroughly prepare with extraordinary determination that the execution of the second warrant will be the last execution,"
- It remains to be seen how and when this will be achieved, with little sign that Yoon is willing to allow the warrant to be executed. The presidential office has formally filed complaints accusing the opposition Democratic Party of Korea of making false accusations against administration officials.
- The political situation in the country remains charged, amid both pro- and anti-Yoon protests in Seoul (despite freezing conditions), the prospect of another gov't resignation in the form of the transport minister following the Jeju Air plane crash, and a destabilising hypersonic missile test by North Korea.
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MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024 (2/2)
Throughout November’s policy and market volatility, though, Treasury auctions largely impressed, with 5 of 7 nominal coupon sales trading through.
- Auction Results: November’s nominal coupon auctions were generally strong, with five out of seven auctions trading-through, of which four saw a positive reading on MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). The remaining two auctions; 3 and 20-year auctions tailed. See page 2.
- Upcoming Supply: Issuance resumes next week with sales of $58B in 3Y Note, $39B in 10Y Note (reopen), and $22B in 30Y Bond (reopen). December is set to see $15B in nominal Treasury coupon sales, in addition to $22B in 5Y TIPS and $28B FRN for a total of $365B – slightly below the Oct and Nov totals of $369B which were joint-highest since Oct 2021.
- MNI's review includes a calendar of upcoming auctions and buyback operations.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024 (1/2)
MNI's latest US Treasury Issuance Deep Dive has just been published (PDF link here):
November proved a dramatic month for Treasuries. Yields were volatile before and after the Nov 5 election - after ending October at 4.28%, 10Y yields peaked at five-and-a-half-month high just above 4.50% mid-month before closing November just below 4.18%, as markets attempted to price in the implications of a Republican “sweep”.
- Also buffeting rates was speculation over the would-be successor to Treasury Secretary Yellen. President-elect Trump’s selection of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent was greeted with bull flattening in the curve, implying perhaps that he’s seen as more cautious on fiscal deficits than some of the alternatives (he has expressed support for halving the annual budget shortfall to 3% of GDP).
- The first quarterly Refunding process of Bessent’s Treasury is in early February, by which point we may start to have a better sense of the incoming administration’s approach to both fiscal policy and to more issuance-specific considerations such as duration management.
- Bessent for instance has argued that Yellen’s Treasury erred from a risk management perspective by boosting short-duration issuance, and there are suggestions he would be in favor of reversing course, telling Bloomberg in June “When rates are very low, you should extend duration…I think it’s very unfortunate what Secretary Yellen’s doing. She’s financing at the front end, and she’s making a bet on the carry trade, which is not good risk management.”
US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
Our latest Employment Insight has just been published and emailed to subscribers.
