CHINA: Country Wrap: UBS Downgrade Growth.
Apr-15 05:17
- UBS AG added to a series of growth downgrades for China with the most pessimistic forecast among major banks, predicting the economy will expand just 3.4% this year as US tariffs choke exports. The Swiss bank, which previously saw growth in 2025 at 4%, maintained its estimate for next year at 3%. (source BBG)
- China should cut its interest rates or reserve requirement ratio to stimulate its economy in face of pressure from US tariff hikes, Securities Times reported, citing a recent survey of 57 economists it conducted. Over 80% of the respondents reckon China can cut rates or RRR at an appropriate time
- For additional fiscal stimulus in 2Q, more than 70% of the respondents propose to issue more ultra-long sovereign bonds or cut taxes and fees; about 60% suggest increasing subsidies for lower-income groups; almost half of respondents call for raising the fiscal deficit ratio (source BBG)
- China's bourses were the exception today. As the Hang Seng edged higher by +0.20%, the onshore bourses drifted lower with CSI 300 down -0.07, Shanghai down -0.07 and Shenzhen down -0.48%
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2096 Per USD; Estimate 7.3075
- A quiet day for bonds with the CGB 10Yr unchanged at 1.66%
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Trending Top
Jul-04 07:27
Jul-04 05:53
