INDONESIA: Country Wrap: Russia to Invest with Danantara

Portugal and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands, France and the ESM have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E19.8bln in first-round operations, up from E18.1bln last week. 

• This morning, Portugal will come to the market with a combined E1.25-1.50bln of the 6-month Nov 21, 2025 BT and the new 12-month May 22, 2026 BT.
• Finally today, the EU will look to issue up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Aug 8, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Nov 7, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month May 8, 2026 EU-bill.

• Ministry of Finance data shows the Chinese government deficit tipped CNY2.6tn in the year to April.   This deficit is one of the largest on record and represented a 50% increase year on year.   The government is looking to cushion the economy as it is buffeted by the impacts of the trade war.   Total expenditure rose 7.2 per cent to CNY12 trillion yuan, the data showed.   In signs the economy may be stabilizing, tax revenue rose 1.9% from a year earlier after a 2.2% decline in March.  Signs that the wave of government bond issuance are impacting the fiscal position were evident as interest payments rose 11%. With signs that the US China relationship is thawing and this release could represent the low point in the deficit as signs that economic activity is stabilizing.  (source MNI Market News)
• The US Commerce Department set the stage for anti-subsidy duties on imports of key battery components from China, after concluding materials had been unfairly subsidized.  The agency’s preliminary determination is an early milestone in a trade case looking at supplies of active anode material, which is vital for electric vehicle batteries, and includes materials such as graphite and silicon.   (source BBG)
• China's major bourses were all positive today with the CSI 300 leading the way, up +0.68%, the Hang Seng up +0.53%, Shanghai up +0.38% and Shenzhen up a mere +0.09%.
• Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1937 Per USD; Estimate 7.2181
• CGBs are steady to a little softer with the 10YR at 1.67%

• RES 4: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 107.600 High Apr 30  
• RES 2: 107.550 High May 7  
• RES 1: 107.335 High May 12 / 20                  
• PRICE: 107.255 @ 06:15 BST May 21
• SUP 1: 107.175/070 Low May 19 / 13 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle        
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27      

Despite recent gains, a  bearish theme in Schatz futures remains intact for now. A resumption of the bear leg would signal scope for an extension towards the next key support at 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger has been defined at 107.070, the May 13 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a potential reversal. This would open 107.550, the May 7 high.