INDIA: Country Wrap: Refiners Told Find New Oil Sources
- Indian state refiners have stopped buying Russian crude in the last week as discounts narrowed and US President Donald Trump warned countries against buying oil from Moscow, sources told Reuters. (source Fin Express)
- India’s Tata Steel Ltd. is planning to explore new markets in regions such as the Middle East and Latin America, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs impact shipments to the US. “We are looking at other markets where there is a requirement for high-end steel and where we are not impacted by these kinds of tariffs,” Chief Executive Officer T.V. Narendran told Bloomberg Television in an interview without elaborating on fallout from US levies. (source BBG)
- India's July final manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to +59.1 from +58.4 in June; moderately lower from the Preliminary numbers earlier. This was the highest reading in more than a year as output rose to +62.5 vs +62.1 in June (the highest reading since April 2024) and new orders were up vs prior month. This comes ahead of next week's RBI decision on Wednesday where at this stage, there is limited expectation for a rate cut. (source MNI)
- The NIFTY 50 is down by -0.29% today and -0.56% for the week as global sentiment turns on tariff announcements.
- The Rupee is up today by +0.35%, bucking regional weak trends yet remains weaker by -0.90% for the trading week.
- India' s 10yr bond is +2bp higher for the week at 6.37%
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
ASIA STOCKS: A Mixed Day as Tariff Threats Echo Around the Region
Asia stocks were mixed today as the markets await the next raft of US data. As President Trumps latest headlines focus on tariff threats for Japan the tariff deadline looms for most countries. The threat towards Japan was a reminder for Korean investors who drove the KOSPI lower today as Nvidia's supplier SK Hynix slumped. Hong Kong got a bump from Casino stocks as June numbers came in ahead expectations.
- The Hang Seng stood out with gains today of +0.62% whilst CSI 300 rose just +0.07%. The Shanghai Comp did very little, down -0.04% whilst Shenzhen was the worst performer, down -0.45%
- The TAIEX in Taiwan was down modestly by -0.12%
- The KOSPI had two strong days of gains, only to fall on tariff fears today by -0.82%
- The FTSE Malay KLCI gained +0.44% capping off five successive days of gains.
- The Jakarta Composite is down -0.91% for a second successive day of falls.
- The FTSE Straits Times rose by +0.48% whilst the PSEi in the Philippines is down -0.39%.
- The NIFT 50 is down modestly by -0.10% offsetting yesterday's gains.
GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 1.3741 @ 06:09 BST Jul 2
- SUP 1: 1.3632/3586 High Jun 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3439 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3338 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 1.3800 next. Initial support to watch lies at 1.3586, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a corrective pullback.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, Narrow Ranges Ahead Of Key US Data
ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -2.5) are modestly weaker after trading in narrow ranges.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's twist-flattener. Wednesday's US data focus is on MBA Mortgage Applications at 0700ET, Challenger Jobs at 0730ET followed by ADP Employment Change at 0815ET. No Fed scheduled Fed speakers. Thursday is a heavy data day with NFP added due to Independence Day holiday closure on Friday.
- Cash ACGBs are 3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -11bps.
- Today’s Jun-35 auction showed solid pricing for ACGBs, with the weighted average yield coming in 0.45bps below prevailing mid-yields. However, the cover ratio nudged lower to 3.3625x. The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 2.25% 21 May 2028 bond on Friday.
- The bills strip has bear-flattened, with pricing -1 to -4.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given a 95% probability, with a cumulative 82bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance and S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs.
