INDIA: Country Wrap:  RBI Debt Purchase Announced for May

Apr-30 05:24
  • China has no intention to undercut markets with artificially low-priced goods, the country’s ambassador to India said, seeking to ease concerns about a potential influx of cheap Chinese products into global markets.  “We will not engage in market dumping or cut-throat competition, nor will we disrupt other countries’ industries and economic development,” Xu Feihong wrote on Tuesday in an editorial in the Indian Express newspaper titled “Stand up to Washington’s bullying.”    (source BBG)
  • The RBI announced a $15bn debt purchase in May to boost liquidity and are expected to ease the demand-supply imbalance and support the economy, with the authority aiming to keep liquidity in 1% surplus of net deposits.  (source RBI)
  • India's NIFTY 50 is up +0.21% in early trading and if maintained has delivered gains of over +3.5% for the month
  • Despite overnight dollar strength, Asia currencies had a strong day with the rupee gaining +.13% to 85.13, its strongest level since December.
  • Bonds are weaker at the open with the IGB 10YR at 6.35% +1.5bps today.   This comes after a 5bps rally yesterday on the OMO announcement

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times BST)

Mar-31 05:23
DateUKPeriodEvent
31-Mar0930FebBoE Lending Data
31-Mar-FQ1DMO Quarterly Investors/GEMM consultation
01-Apr0001MarBRC Monthly Shop Price Index
01-Apr0915-BoE's Greene on ‘UK MP/macro conjuncture’
01-Apr0930MarManufacturing PMI
03-Apr0930MarDecision Maker Panel data
03-Apr0930MarServices / Composite PMI
04-Apr0730FQ1DMO announce Apr-Jun issuance operations
04-Apr0930MarConstruction PMI
08-Apr1700-BoE's Lombardelli on 'What can the UK learn from the US'
10-Apr0001MarRICS House Prices
10-Apr1400-BoE's Breeden at MNI Connect Event
11-Apr0001-KPMG/REC Jobs Report
11-Apr0700FebMonthly Activity Data
11-Apr--BoE's Saporta on 'How financial crisis reshape market and strategies’
12-Apr--BoE's Greene on 'how to coordinate economic policy'
15-Apr0001MarBRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
15-Apr0700Feb/MarLabour Market Survey

EURUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlights A Dominant Uptrend

Mar-31 05:18
  • RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024 
  • RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
  • RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
  • RES 1: 1.0861/0955 High Mar 21 / 18 and the bull trigger  
  • PRICE: 1.0837 @ 06:17 BST Mar 31
  • SUP 1: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support   
  • SUP 2: 1.0649 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level     
  • SUP 3: 1.0602 Low Mar 5    
  • SUP 4: 1.0548 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 18 bull run

Recent weakness in EURUSD appears to have been a correction and the trend condition remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. 1.0733, the Mar 27 low, marks a key near-term support. A move through it would confirm a clear breach of the 20-day EMA and allow for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0649. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.0955, the Mar 18 high.

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Mar-31 05:18
DateTimeCountryEvent
31-Mar700DEImport/Export Prices / Retail Sales
31-Mar900DEState-level Flash CPI
31-Mar1000ITHICP (p)
31-Mar1300DEHICP (p)
01-Apr815ESS&P Global Manufacturing PMI
01-Apr845ITS&P Global Manufacturing PMI
01-Apr850FRS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01-Apr855DES&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01-Apr900EUS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01-Apr920EUECB's Cipollone At Croatian National Bank Meeting
01-Apr1000EUHICP (p) / Unemployment
01-Apr1330EUECB's Lagarde At AI Conference
01-Apr1730EUECB's Lane At AI Conference
02-Apr1130EUECB's Schnabel At SciencesPo Conference
02-Apr1505EUECB's Lane At AI Conference