INDIA: Country Wrap: PMIs Show the Gap Between Regional Peers
- On a day where (with the exception of the Philippines) all regional Asian PMIs slipped to contraction, India’s April PMI stands out and shows the gap emerging. At 58.2 it is the strongest PMI of its peer group and has remained extremely resilient despite the US trade war. The reading was the highest since the middle of 2024 with output up at +61.9 despite new orders dipping from last month’s release. It has been a remarkable period for India’s PMIs with a 5-year average of 56.8. (source MNI Market News)
- Vice President Vance says a trade deal with India is imminent will be one of the first and any deal will fundamentally open the country to American technology and agriculture (source BBG).
- India's NIFTY 50 is up +0.88% today as news circulates that India could be one of the first to finalize their trade deal. The index is on track to deliver a 2% gain this week for three successive weeks of gains.
- The rupee has had a strong week gaining 1.8% to be at 83.90
- Bonds have had a good week on the back of the announcement for May’s OMO seeing significant purchases of government bonds to come. IGB 10YR 6.35% (-1bp today)
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SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Sights Are On Key Resistance
- RES 4: 107.289 1.236 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.200 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 1: 107.090 High Mar 31
- PRICE: 106.970 @ 06:03 BST Apr 2
- SUP 1: 106.900 Low Mar 31
- SUP 2: 106.816 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 106.715 Low Mar 25
- SUP 4: 106.630 Low Mar 18
Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone despite the pullback from Monday’s high. Price has cleared all the relevant retracement levels of the bear leg between Mar 4 - 6, and this signals scope for a climb towards key resistance and a bull trigger at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies 106.816, the 20-day EMA. A move down and a breach of this level would signal a possible reversal.
GERMANY: Bankers Pessimistic About Growth Outlook
The Association of German Banks is painting a subdued picture for Germany’s economy. Quarterly growth has alternated between positive and negative outcomes since Q4 2022 leaving Q4 2024 down 0.2% y/y and the group is forecasting it to recover to only 0.2% in 2025 revised down from 0.7%, according to projections seen by Reuters. It expects it to improve to 1.4% in 2026 helped by fiscal stimulus.
- Heiner Herkenhoff, CEO of the Association of German Banks, said that “with strong reforms and the prospect of a competitive tax policy, the new government could stimulate investment earlier” than 2026, the earliest the new fiscal package will be felt, which includes increased defence and infrastructure spending.
- He expects real business investment to contract this year. "Even the expected increase of 3.5% for 2026 is rather weak compared to previous recoveries," Herkenhoff said.
- US 25% tariffs on imported autos is expected to weigh on Germany’s carmakers significantly and details on any further pain from reciprocal tariffs will be discovered later on Wednesday (4pm ET/9pm BST).
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Services / Composite PMI |
| 04-Apr | 0730 | FQ1 | DMO announce Apr-Jun issuance operations |
| 04-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Construction PMI |
| 08-Apr | 1700 | - | BoE's Lombardelli on 'What can the UK learn from the US' |
| 10-Apr | 0001 | Mar | RICS House Prices |
| 10-Apr | 1400 | - | BoE's Breeden at MNI Connect Event |
| 11-Apr | 0001 | - | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 11-Apr | 0700 | Feb | Monthly Activity Data |
| 11-Apr | - | - | BoE's Saporta on 'How financial crisis reshape market and strategies’ |
| 12-Apr | - | - | BoE's Greene on 'how to coordinate economic policy' |
| 15-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 15-Apr | 0700 | Feb/Mar | Labour Market Survey |
| 16-Apr | 0700 | Mar | CPI / PPI |
| 23-Apr | 0001 | Mar | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 23-Apr | 0700 | Mar | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Apr | 0930 | Apr | Flash PMIs |
