MALAYSIA: Country Wrap:   PMIs Down Again 

• RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24        
• RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24 and a key near-term resistance       
• PRICE: 0.8355 @ 06:32 BST Apr 2 
• SUP 1: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support 
• SUP 2: 0.8291 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8251 Low Mar 4  
• SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a bear trigger

EURGBP is trading above last week’s low. The bear leg that started Mar 11 appears corrective and has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 0.8316, the Mar 28 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 0.8290, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of  0.8395, the Mar 24 high, would be a bullish development.

• RES 4: 107.289 1.236 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg     
• RES 3: 107.200 Round number resistance     
• RES 2: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance 
• RES 1: 107.090 High Mar 31                 
• PRICE: 106.970 @ 06:03 BST Apr 2     
• SUP 1: 106.900 Low Mar 31   
• SUP 2: 106.816 20-day EMA    
• SUP 3: 106.715 Low Mar 25     
• SUP 4: 106.630 Low Mar 18      

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone despite the pullback from Monday’s high. Price has cleared all the relevant retracement levels of the bear leg between Mar 4 - 6, and this signals scope for a climb towards key resistance and a bull trigger at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies 106.816, the 20-day EMA. A move down and a breach of this level would signal a possible reversal.

The Association of German Banks is painting a subdued picture for Germany’s economy. Quarterly growth has alternated between positive and negative outcomes since Q4 2022 leaving Q4 2024 down 0.2% y/y and the group is forecasting it to recover to only 0.2% in 2025 revised down from 0.7%, according to projections seen by Reuters. It expects it to improve to 1.4% in 2026 helped by fiscal stimulus.

• Heiner Herkenhoff, CEO of the Association of German Banks, said that “with strong reforms and the prospect of a competitive tax policy, the new government could stimulate investment earlier” than 2026, the earliest the new fiscal package will be felt, which includes increased defence and infrastructure spending.
• He expects real business investment to contract this year. "Even the expected increase of 3.5% for 2026 is rather weak compared to previous recoveries," Herkenhoff said.
• US 25% tariffs on imported autos is expected to weigh on Germany’s carmakers significantly and details on any further pain from reciprocal tariffs will be discovered later on Wednesday (4pm ET/9pm BST).