INDONESIA: Country Wrap: Palm Oil Exports to the US Assured
Jul-18 05:34
- Indonesia is set to maintain its dominance in the American palm oil market after the US agreed to slash its reciprocal tariff on Jakarta from 32 percent to 19 percent, much lower than its competitor, Malaysia. Malaysia, meanwhile, is facing a tariff of 25 percent based on US President Donald Trump’s letter issued last week. Additionally, the US government has already imposed a 10 percent baseline tariff on both palm oil-producing countries, just like the rest of the world. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman said Thursday that the tariff rate gap could give Jakarta an edge on Malaysia in palm oil trade with the US. (source: Jakarta Globe)
- Indonesia’s freshly announced major energy purchase with the US can backfire on its government spending and oil trade deficit, according to an analyst. President Prabowo Subianto and his American counterpart Donald Trump recently reached an agreement to have the US’ reciprocal tariffs on Indonesian goods dropped from 32 percent to 19 percent. In return for a significantly lower tariff rate, Indonesia is willing to make major American energy imports worth up to $15 billion, among other concessions. Senior economist Bhima Yudhistira told the Jakarta Globe on Wednesday that the deal was not a win-win, saying that it could worsen Jakarta's oil trade deficit trend. (source: Jakarta Globe)
- The Jakarta Composite has been on a tear this week, rising +1.2% today and on track to be ahead +4.7% for the week for its best weekly return since early March
- The Rupiah is the best regional performer today up +.22% at 16,305 yet remains down by -0.53% for the week.
- Bonds have done very little for the week at the 10yr remains at 6.57%
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jun-18 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 18-Jun | 0700 | May | Consumer inflation report |
| 19-Jun | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 20-Jun | 0001 | Jun | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 20-Jun | 0700 | May | Public Sector Finances / Retail Sales |
| 20-Jun | 1630 | Q3 | BOE to announce Q3 APF sales schedule |
| 23-Jun | 0930 | Jun | S&P Global Flash PMIs |
| 24-Jun | 1030 | ---- | BOE Green On CB Balance Sheet Mgmt |
| 24-Jun | 1100 | Jun | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24-Jun | 1435 | ---- | BOE Ramsden At Barclays-CEPR MonPol Forum |
| 24-Jun | 1500 | ---- | BOE Bailey At Lords Econ Affairs Committee |
| 24-Jun | 1650 | ---- | BOE Breeden At UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit |
| 25-Jun | 0001 | Jun | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 25-Jun | 0945 | ---- | BOE Lombardelli At BOE MonPol Conference |
| 25-Jun | 1000 | ---- | BOE Pill On Panel At BOE MonPol Conference |
| 25-Jun | 1330 | ---- | BOE Lombardelli Chairs Riksbank's Breman Speech At BOE MonPol Conf |
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
Jun-18 05:18
- RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3632 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.34441 @ 06:17 BST Jun 18
- SUP 1: 1.3415 Low Jun 17
- SUP 2: 1.3350 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3237 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
A sharp sell-off in GBPUSD Tuesday resulted in a breach of support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3496. The latest move down is considered corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. The next important support lies at 1.3350, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, the key resistance and bull trigger has been defined at 1.3632, the Jun 13 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jun-18 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 18-Jun | 0830 | EU | ECB Elderson At SRB Legal Conference 2025 |
| 18-Jun | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 18-Jun | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18-Jun | 1600 | EU | ECB Lane At Macroprudential Conference |
| 18-Jun | 1900 | EU | EC de Guindos at Osservatorio Permanente Giovani |
| 19-Jun | 0830 | EU | ECB's Lagarde On Economic and Financial Integration |
| 19-Jun | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 19-Jun | 1045 | EU | ECB de Guindos On Eurozone Economic Outlook |
| 19-Jun | 1130 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote At Economic Integration Conference |
| 19-Jun | ---- | EU | ECB Cipollone At Eurogroup Meeting |
| 19-Jun | 1700 | EU | ECB Lagarde At Financi'Elles event |
| 20-Jun | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Jun | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 20-Jun | ---- | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting |
| 20-Jun | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23-Jun | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Jun | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Jun | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Jun | 1400 | EU | ECB Lagarde At ECON Hearing |
