INDIA: Country Wrap: Outward FDI Doubles
May-15 05:22
- India and the US are working out a fresh customs audit process to minimize the rejection of consignments, lessen the number of certification and expedite movement of goods amid ongoing trade negotiation between the two nations.
The customs representative from both sides met last week to introduce clearer protocols and auditing mechanisms in compliance with international trade standards, and at the same time to reduce certification requirements for seafood, and genetically modified agricultural goodse, and processed food, according to the Economic Times (source BBG) - India’s outward foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments almost doubled to $6.8 billion in April 2025, up from $3.58 billion in the same month last year. Sequentially, they rose from $5.9 billion in March 2025, according to data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). (source BBG)
- The NIFTY 50 has given back yesterday's gains and is lower by -0.43%
- The Rupee is the worst performer of its regional peers today down -0.45% at 85.66 whilst most others rallied.
- Bonds are given back some of the gains from earlier in the week with the IGB 10YR 6.31% (+3bps today)
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (BST Times)
Apr-15 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 15-Apr | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15-Apr | 900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 15-Apr | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 15-Apr | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 16-Apr | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 16-Apr | 900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16-Apr | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17-Apr | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 17-Apr | 1315 | EU | ECB Deposit/ Main Refi/ Marginal Lending Rate |
| 17-Apr | 1345 | EU | ECB Monetary Policy press conference |
| 21-Apr | EU | ECB's Lagard and Cipollone in IMF/WB Meetings | |
| 22-Apr | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 22-Apr | 1800 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at MIT/ICADE Finance Club |
| 23-Apr | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 23-Apr | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 23-Apr | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 23-Apr | 900 | EU | ECB Wage Tracker |
| 23-Apr | 1000 | EU | Construction Production/ Trade Balance |
| 23-Apr | 2015 | EU | ECB's Lane on Central Bankers' Amid Changing Liquidity |
| 23-Apr | 2045 | EU | ECB's Cipollone on Tokenization and the Financial System |
CHINA: Country Wrap: UBS Downgrade Growth.
Apr-15 05:17
- UBS AG added to a series of growth downgrades for China with the most pessimistic forecast among major banks, predicting the economy will expand just 3.4% this year as US tariffs choke exports. The Swiss bank, which previously saw growth in 2025 at 4%, maintained its estimate for next year at 3%. (source BBG)
- China should cut its interest rates or reserve requirement ratio to stimulate its economy in face of pressure from US tariff hikes, Securities Times reported, citing a recent survey of 57 economists it conducted. Over 80% of the respondents reckon China can cut rates or RRR at an appropriate time
- For additional fiscal stimulus in 2Q, more than 70% of the respondents propose to issue more ultra-long sovereign bonds or cut taxes and fees; about 60% suggest increasing subsidies for lower-income groups; almost half of respondents call for raising the fiscal deficit ratio (source BBG)
- China's bourses were the exception today. As the Hang Seng edged higher by +0.20%, the onshore bourses drifted lower with CSI 300 down -0.07, Shanghai down -0.07 and Shenzhen down -0.48%
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2096 Per USD; Estimate 7.3075
- A quiet day for bonds with the CGB 10Yr unchanged at 1.66%
AUSSIE BONDS: Follow US Tsys Into A Bull-Flattener, RBA Remains Cautious
Apr-15 05:10
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +7.0) are showing a bull flattener in today’s Sydney session.
- The release of the RBA Minutes for the April Meeting was the key domestic driver. The Board judged that economic conditions were broadly in line with forecasts, with inflation gradually declining and the labour market still tight.
- Risks to the outlook were seen as balanced, including global trade uncertainty and domestic factors like wages and productivity.
- Given this, the Board decided to keep the cash rate unchanged, emphasising the need for caution. Future decisions will depend on incoming data, especially on inflation, employment, and global developments.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 4bps richer, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session.
- Cash ACGBs are 1-7bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -2bps.
- The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +6.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 36% probability.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index, ahead of March’s Employment Report on Thursday.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond tomorrow.
