INDONESIA: Country Wrap: OECD Lowers Indonesia Growth Outlook

Oil prices have recovered most of Monday’s losses today driven by technicals. Also Asia including China returned from holidays. WTI is up 1.7% to $58.07/bbl, close to the intraday high, to be down only 0.4% this week. Brent is 1.6% higher at $61.21/bbl and only down 0.1% since Friday. The USD index is off its intraday high to be up only 0.1%. 

• Bloomberg is reporting that the 9-day relative strength index flashed oversold which drove today’s bounce in both WTI and Brent.
• After OPEC’s decision to increase output by over 400kbd from June following a similar rise in April, supply trends are going to remain firmly in focus. Saudi Arabia warned that there could be further rises if its members don’t stick to their quotas. Iraq and Kazakhstan have been constant overproducers.
• Later today US industry-based inventory data are released, which will give an insight into demand/supply trends there ahead of the official data on Wednesday.
• Later US March trade data are released as well as Canadian trade & PMI and European services/composite PMIs for April.

• RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing     
• RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
• RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28 
• PRICE: 0.8514 @ 06:13 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 0.8480 Low May 1
• SUP 2: 0.8477/67 61.8% of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally 
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support  

EURGBP is trading closer to its recent lows and a short-term bear cycle remains in play, for now. The next support to watch is 0.8477, a Fibonacci retracement point where a break would strengthen a bearish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 0.8467. It is still possible the move down that started Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and bull trigger. First key resistance is 0.8624, the Apr 21 high.

• RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22 
• RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29 
• PRICE: 1.3302 @ 06:06 BST May 6
• SUP 1: 1.3257 Low May 5   
• SUP 2: 1.3232 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041/3045 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11 

The latest pullback in GBPUSD appears corrective. A tweezer top formation on the daily candle chart last Monday/Tuesday, highlights a short-term top. Firm support at 1.3232, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant underlying uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection.