INDIA: Country Wrap: No Panic Over US Trade Deal
Sep-05 05:31
- India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said negotiations with the US on the trade deal should be allowed to continue and that there was no need to “panic” over the delay. “We continue to have very good relations with the US, and I’m sure that we’ll be able to resolve some of these issues and come to an equitable, fair and balanced agreement,” Goyal said in an interview with news agency ANI. Formal talks between New Delhi and Washington are on pause at the moment after a US team canceled its trip to India in August. But the two nations are keeping informal communication channels open, indicating they are keen to resolve tensions. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump said that India had offered to cut its tariffs on US goods to zero, without saying when the concession was made. (source BBG)
- While Donald Trump is hard to beat when it comes to stealing the global spotlight, Xi Jinping proved this week he can also put on a good show.
In memorable scenes reminiscent of a family reunion, the Chinese leader embraced and riffed with some of the world’s preeminent strongmen — including an impromptu conversation with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un about organ transplants and immortality.
But the most surprising image may have been a chummy three-way gathering between Xi, Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who made his first visit to China in seven years. Beyond the symbolism of seeing them laugh and hold hands, as well as Modi riding in Putin’s limo, they also hold the biggest potential for real economic shifts that could offer the world an ability to withstand threats from Trump to impose financial pain for defying the US. (source BBG) - The NIFTY 50 is marginally lower at the open yet on track for a positive week, currently up +1.15%.
- The Rupee has fallen this week by -0.13% to reach 88.31
- Bonds are having one of their strongest weeks in some time with the IGB 10-Yr down -8bps for the week to 6.48%
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-06 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 06-Aug | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global / CIPS Construction PMI |
| 07-Aug | 1200 | --- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 07-Aug | 1230 | --- | BOE Press Conference |
| 07-Aug | 1400 | Jul | BOE Decision Maker Panel Data |
| 08-Aug | 1215 | --- | BOE Pill At National MPC Agency Briefing |
| 11-Aug | 0001 | Jul | KPMG / REC UK Report on Jobs |
| 12-Aug | 0001 | Jul | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 12-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Labour Market Survey |
| 12-Aug | 1200 | Q2 / Jun | BOE APF Quarterly Report |
| 14-Aug | 0700 | Q2 / Jun | GDP / Services / Production / Construction |
| 18-Aug | 1530 | --- | DMO likely to publish FQ3 consultation agenda |
| 20-Aug | 0001 | Jul | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Consumer inflation report / Producer Prices |
| 21-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Aug | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global / CIPS UK Flash PMI |
OIL: Crude Higher Again, US Inventory Data Out Later
Aug-06 05:19
Oil prices are higher today supported by US industry data showing a large crude drawdown and the upcoming August 8 deadline for a truce in Ukraine otherwise purchasers of Russian fuel will be hit by extra US tariffs. Crude is down over 5% in the first three trading days of the month. WTI is 0.6% higher at $65.54/bbl following a high of $65.63. Brent is up 0.6% to $66.90/bbl after reaching $66.94. The USD index is down 0.1%.
- Markets believe that even if there isn’t a US-Russia agreement, that it will be very difficult to reduce Russian fuel shipments materially. US special envoy Witkoff is scheduled to be in Russia today for meetings.
- Daily Russian product exports declined around 4% in July from June to their lowest in nine months based on Vortexa data compiled by Bloomberg. Refining rates are down and summer has driven an increase in domestic consumption. Russia has stopped gasoline exports for now.
- Bloomberg reported that US oil inventories fell a more-than-expected 4.2mn last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline stocks fell 900k while distillate rose 1.6mn. The official EIA data is out later today and will be monitored for signs of weakening demand.
- Later the Fed’s Cook, Collins and Daly speak. Euro area June retail sales, June German factory orders and French Q2 employment print.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-06 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 06-Aug | 0700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06-Aug | 0830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06-Aug | 0900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 06-Aug | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 07-Aug | 0700 | DE | Trade Balance / Industrial Production |
| 07-Aug | 0745 | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 11-Aug | 0900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 11-Aug | 1000 | IT | Foreign trade and import prices |
| 12-Aug | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 13-Aug | 0700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13-Aug | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production / GDP (f) |
| 18-Aug | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 19-Aug | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
