CHINA: Country Wrap: Local Papers Predicting Rate Cuts
- China is likely to lower their benchmark lending rates this year to bolster economic growth, industry analysts interviewed by domestic financial newspapers including Securities Daily predict. (source Securities Daily)
- China's private companies are spearheading breakthrough innovations across various key sectors, supported by favorable government policies that encourage entrepreneurship and unleash market vitality in technological advancement. The latest data shows that the private sector has emerged as a key driving force behind China's technological development, with private firms accounting for over 92 percent of the country's high-tech companies since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). (source Xinhua)
- An offshore onshore divide today with the Hang Seng down -0.13%, CSI 300 up +0.66%, Shanghai Comp up +0.38% and Shenzhen Comp up +0.25%.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1287 Per USD; Estimate 7.1773
- The CGB 10yr is -1bp for the day at 1.77% yet remains +3bps higher for the week.
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SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Resistance Is Intact For Now
- RES 4: 107.475 High May 27
- RES 3: 107.430 High Jun 13
- RES 2: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 107.335 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 107.325 @ 06:14 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 107.200/120 Low Jul 15 and 16 / Low Jul 11 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107.112 1.236 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
- SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
Schatz futures traded higher Monday, extending the recovery that started on Jul 11. Trend indicators continue to highlight a bear cycle and if correct, this suggests that short-term gains are corrective. Resistance to watch is 107.365, the Jun 7 high. A break would strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 107.120, the Jul 11 low and bear trigger.
US TSY FLOWS: BUY TUU5
BUY 4180 of TUU5 traded at 103-23 1/8, post-time 15:10:48 AEST (DV01 $156,378). The contract is currently trading at 103-22 3/4, -0-00 1/4+ from closing levels.
GBPUSD: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 3: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3620 High Jul 10
- RES 1: 1.3517 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3472 @ 06:23 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16 and the short-term bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD continues to trade above its recent lows. For now, short-term gains appear corrective and a bear threat remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of trendline support currently at 1.3480 - drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach strengthens a bear theme, exposing 1.3335 next, the May 20 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3517, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential base.
