INDIA: Country Wrap: India to Surpass the US in PPP by '38

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8705/69 50% of Jul 28-29 sell-off / High Jul 27 & bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8656 @ 06:31 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 0.8649/42 20- day EMA/Low Jul 29
• SUP 2: 0.8584 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend set-up in EURGBP remains bullish, however, Monday’s price pattern - a bearish engulfing candle - does signal a potential short-term reversal. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8649 was pierced on Tuesday, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The 50-day EMA lies at 0.8584. For bulls, a move through 0.8769, the Jul 27 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

French Q2 flash GDP was slightly stronger than expected at 0.3% Q/Q (vs 0.1% cons and prior). However, the details of the print are not strong: Inventory investment contributed 0.5pp to the quarterly print (vs 0.7pp prior), with final domestic demand dragging 0.1pp and net exports pulling GDP down by 0.2pp.

• RES 4: 107.360 High Jul 22 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 107.267 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 107.233 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 107.155 Low Jul 28
• PRICE: 107.100 @ 05:58 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 107.010 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 107.993 1.500 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing 
• SUP 3: 106.964 1.618 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.928 1.764 proj of the Jul 7 - 11 - 22 price swing

Schatz futures traded sharply lower last week resulting in a break of key short-term support at 107.120, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. However, the contract has recovered from the Jul 25 low and recent price patterns highlight a potential base. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 107.221. The 50-day EMA is at 107.267. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 107.010, the Jul 25 low.