SOUTH KOREA: Country Wrap: Import Prices Down on Lower Oil
- South Korea’s import prices fell 2.3% in April from a year ago, while export prices increased 0.7%, according to the statement from Bank of Korea. Price for imported goods to South Korea fell for the third straight month due to cheaper crude oil. The import price index declined 1.9 percent in April from a month earlier, after going down 1.0 percent in February and 0.4 percent in March, according to the Bank of Korea (BOK). The successive slide was attributed to cheaper crude oil and the local currency's appreciation versus the U.S. dollar. (source BBG)
- The government on Friday vowed to closely monitor the financial market amid lingering uncertainties stemming from ongoing talks with the United States over its tariff scheme and global economic conditions. Such remarks were made during a meeting on macroeconomic issues, presided over by acting Finance Minister Kim Beom-suk and attended by Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov. Rhee Chang-yong, along with the heads of the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance. (source Yonhap)
- The KOSPI is higher by +0.30% and set to deliver a 2% increase this week.
- The won gained +.35% today and is up +.37% for the week ag 1,392.90
- Bonds rallied today across the curve with the KTB 10YR lower by -2bps, whilst +3bps for the week.
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GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $3370.9 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3347.7 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 2: $3300.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3291.8 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- PRICE: $3288.2 @ 06:11 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: $3167.9/3092.1 - High Apr 3 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2991.0/2956.7 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and today’s extension reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3092.1, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a Fibonacci projection.
ASIA STOCKS: Up Beat China Data Fails to Lift Stocks
Economic data from China today was better than expected, with first quarter GDP ahead of expectations. Yet this was not enough to give stocks a boost, with most bourses following China’s lead lower.
Suppliers to Nvidia Corp. saw share price declines in Asia after the chipmaker said the US government will begin requiring a license to export its H20 chips to China, an escalation of restrictions.
- Led by the Hang Seng’s decline of -2.53%, onshore bourses were down with CSI 300 -0.93%, Shanghai -0.92% and Shenzhen -2.25% respectively.
- Taiwan’s TAIEX had a very weak day, falling -1.75%.
- The KOSPI couldn’t follow up on two strong days, falling -0.65%.
- In Singapore, the FTSE Straits Times bucked the regional trend to rise +0.28% today whilst the PSEi in the Philippines fell -0.78%.
- Malaysia’s FTSE Malay KLCI was down -0.67% after two successful days of gains.
- Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite did very little today, hovering around where it started.
- India’s NIFTY 50 is up only modestly in morning trading, rising by +0.15% after yesterday’s very strong rise of +2.19%
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, US Retail Sales & Chair Powell Today, Jobs Data Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM +1.0) are slightly weaker after dealing in narrow ranges in today's Sydney session.
- In today's Asia-Pac session, US tsys are exhibiting a twist-steepener, with yields ranging from 3bps lower at the short end to 1bp higher further out the curve. Today's US calendar sees: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and NAHB Housing Market Index. Fed Chair Powell will also deliver a speech about the economic outlook.
- Cash ACGBs are 1-3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +3bps.
- The bill strip pricing is -4 to -7, with a flattening bias.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-7bps firmer across meetings today, with September leading. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 21% probability, with a cumulative 114bps of easing priced by year-end.
- (AFR) “The Reserve Bank of Australia has flagged that interest rates could be cut again in May after the federal election, once it has the latest information on inflation and Donald Trump’s trade war.” (see BBG link)
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see The March Employment Report, with consensus expecting +40k jobs created but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1%.
