CHINA: Country Wrap: Huge Rebound in China Copper
* A gauge of strength in China's copper market has jumped to the highest since late 2023 as buyers...
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EURUSD TECHS: MA Studies Highlights A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0861/0955 High Mar 21 / 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.0837 @ 06:17 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 1.0733 Low Mar 27 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.0649 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0602 Low Mar 5
- SUP 4: 1.0548 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 18 bull run
Recent weakness in EURUSD appears to have been a correction and the trend condition remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. 1.0733, the Mar 27 low, marks a key near-term support. A move through it would confirm a clear breach of the 20-day EMA and allow for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.0649. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 1.0955, the Mar 18 high.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 31-Mar | 700 | DE | Import/Export Prices / Retail Sales |
| 31-Mar | 900 | DE | State-level Flash CPI |
| 31-Mar | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 31-Mar | 1300 | DE | HICP (p) |
| 01-Apr | 815 | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI |
| 01-Apr | 845 | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI |
| 01-Apr | 850 | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01-Apr | 855 | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01-Apr | 900 | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 01-Apr | 920 | EU | ECB's Cipollone At Croatian National Bank Meeting |
| 01-Apr | 1000 | EU | HICP (p) / Unemployment |
| 01-Apr | 1330 | EU | ECB's Lagarde At AI Conference |
| 01-Apr | 1730 | EU | ECB's Lane At AI Conference |
| 02-Apr | 1130 | EU | ECB's Schnabel At SciencesPo Conference |
| 02-Apr | 1505 | EU | ECB's Lane At AI Conference |
EQUITIES: Goldman Cut S&P 500 Forecasts
Goldman Sachs have reduced their “S&P 500 3-month and 12-month return forecasts to -5% and +6% (previously +0% and +16%). Based on market prices at the end of last week, these suggest S&P 500 index levels of roughly 5,300 and 5,900, respectively”.
- They note that “higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and greater inflation than we previously assumed lead us to cut our S&P 500 EPS growth forecasts to +3% in 2025 (from +7%) and +6% in 2026 (from +7%). Our new EPS estimates are $253 and $269, respectively. These estimates are below both the top-down strategist consensus and the bottom-up consensus of equity analysts”.
- Their economists “estimate a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters a recession during the next 12 months”.
- They “continue to recommend investors watch for an improvement in the growth outlook, more asymmetry in market pricing, or depressed positioning before trying to trade a market bottom”.
- Although their “sentiment Indicator has declined sharply during the last few weeks (to -1.2), it remains above levels reached at the troughs of other major sell-offs during recent years (-2.0 or lower)”.
