INDONESIA: Country Wrap: Growth Beat Gets Market Talking
- Indonesia’s economy expanded by 5.12 percent in the second quarter of 2025, outperforming several major Southeast Asian economies, including Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, according to official figures released on Tuesday. The data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) marked the country’s strongest quarterly growth in two years, beating all market expectations and reinforcing the nation’s resilience amid regional economic uncertainty. By comparison, Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.5 percent in the same quarter, based on its advance estimate. Singapore posted 4.3 percent growth, while Thailand is projected to have grown by just 2.3 percent, according to estimates from the Bank of Thailand. (source Jakarta Globe)
- Indonesia’s economic growth has far outstripped forecasts thanks to infrastructure projects getting pushed ahead and state-sponsored incentives pushing consumer spending. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) executive Edy Mahmud revealed in a press conference on Tuesday that gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.12 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the second quarter, beating the 4.8 percent market consensus. The figure marks a significant acceleration from 4.87 percent growth registered in the previous quarter and from 5.02 percent in last year’s second quarter. (source Jakarta Post)
- The Jakarta Composite is one of the best performers in July but could only rise marginally today by +0.08%.
- The Rupiah is one of the better regional performers today up +0.08% at 16,377
- Bonds are higher in yield by +1-1.5bps across the curve. The 10yr is at 6.49% (after yesterday's close of 6.48%)
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SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30
- RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
- RES 1: 107.365 Intraday high
- PRICE: 107.340 @ 06:14 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23
- SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
Schatz futures remain inside a range and price continues to trade below the Jun 13 high. Support to watch is 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm resistance is 107.430, the Jun 13 high.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C 7 July
Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium and Italy are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E27.6bln in first round operations, up from E20.6bln last week.
- This morning, Germany will look to sell E3bln of the 6-month Jan 14, 2026 Bubill and E1bln of the 11-month Jun 17, 2026 Bubill. This will be the first auction of the 11-month bubill since its re-introduction was announced in DFA's Q3 issuance plan.
- Also this morning, the Netherlands will look to issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 3-month Sep 29, 2025 DTC and E0.5-1.5bln of the 4-month Oct 30, 2025 DTC.
- This afternoon, France will look to come to the market with up to E7.5bln of 14/15/27/49-week BTFs: E2.7-3.1bln of the new 14-week Oct 15, 2025 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 15-week Oct 22, 2025 BTF, E1.8-2.2bln of the 27-week Jan 14, 2026 BTF and E1.4-1.8bln of the 49-week Jun 17, 2026 BTF.
- Tomorrow morning, Spain will look to sell the 3-month Oct 10, 2025 letras and the 9-month Apr 10, 2026 letras, with size details to be announced today.
- Also tomorrow, Belgium will look to issue E2.6-3.0bln of TCs: An indicative E1.0bln of the 3-month Oct 16, 2025 TC and an indicative E1.8bln of the new 12-month Jul 9, 2026 TC.
- Finally on Thursday, Italy will look to hold a BOT auction. A new 12-month BOT will be on offer, potentially alongside another BOT. Details will be announced today.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 1.3616 @ 06:37 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: 1.3602/63 20-day EMA / Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 1.3462 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3369 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Support to watch is1.3602, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper correction towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3462. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. A break of it would resume the uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position - this suggests the M/T uptrend remains intact.
