INDONESIA: Country Wrap: Government Focused on Consumption
- The Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs has said that the Indonesian government is negotiating zero import tariffs with the United States for commodities such as cocoa, coffee, and palm oil. The Indonesian negotiation team is continuing to push for tariff elimination for commodities that the US does not produce, the ministry’s secretary said. (source Antara)
- The Indonesian government aims to maintain economic growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 through programs that stimulate public consumption. The Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs said stimulus packages rolled out in the first and second quarters have proved effective in supporting growth. "Going forward, several government programs will focus on maintaining domestic and household consumption," he said at the launch of the 2025 Indonesia Shopping Festival in Jakarta on Thursday. (source Antara)
- The Jakarta Composite took a breather today, hovering around where it started yet remains up over 5% for the last five trading days.
- The Rupiah gave back some of the gains from earlier this week and remains at 16,165 and a gain of +0.62% for the last five trading days.
Bonds sold off today with yields +1-2bp higher across the curve. The 10yr is at 6.39%, a record low for 2025.
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SCHATZ TECHS: (U5) Range Breakout
- RES 4: 107.475 High May 27
- RES 3: 107.430 High Jun 13
- RES 2: 107.365 High Jun 7 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 107.244/255 20-day EMA / High Jul 15
- PRICE: 107.235 @ 06:05 BST Jul 16
- SUP 1: 107.120 Low Jul 11
- SUP 2: 107.112 1.236 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
- SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing
Schatz futures traded lower last week and for now, a bear cycle remains in play and recent gains appear corrective. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of support at 107.195 and 107.180, the Jun 6 and 23 lows respectively. This highlights a range breakout and strengthens a short-term bearish theme. Sights are on 107.112 next, a Fibonacci projection, and the 117.000 handle. Initial firm resistance to watch is 107.244, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches Trendline Support
- RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 3: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3555 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3393 @ 06:27 BST Jul 16
- SUP 1: 1.3371 Low Jun 23 and a key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
A short-term bear cycle in GBPUSD remains in place and this week’s move down reinforces current bearish conditions. The pair has breached both 20- and 50-day EMAs. Yesterday’s move down resulted in a break of trendline support at 1.3440. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low and the breach strengthens a bearish threat, exposing 1.3371 initially, the Jun 23 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3555, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 16-Jul | 0700 | Q1 | Consumer inflation report |
| 17-Jul | 0700 | Q1 | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jul | 0700 | Q1 | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Jul | 0001 | Q1 | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 24-Jul | 0930 | Q1 | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 1100 | Q1 | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25-Jul | 0001 | Q1 | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Jul | 0700 | Q1 | Retail Sales |
| 28-Jul | 1100 | Q1 | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Jul | 0001 | Q1 | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 29-Jul | 0930 | Q1 | BOE Lending to Individuals M4 |
| 01-Aug | 0930 | Q1 | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 05-Aug | 0930 | Q1 | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
| 06-Aug | 0930 | Q1 | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
