INDONESIA: Country Wrap: Free Meal Program Spend Cut
Jun-25 05:25
- Indonesian sovereign wealth fund Danantara will extend a $405 million loan to PT Garuda Indonesia to help the distressed flag carrier turn around finances and expand its fleet in the coming years. Garuda Chief Executive Officer said in a briefing Tuesday that the shareholder loan would be the first step in a “comprehensive transformation” of the airline that will include long-term financing based on performance. The move confirms an earlier Bloomberg News report of funding plans. (source BBG)
- Indonesia has trimmed spending plans for what could still be the world’s second-most expensive free meals program, offering modest relief from fiscal pressures as President Prabowo Subianto advances a host of big-ticket projects. Planned spending on the program, which targets reaching 83 million people in the coming months, is now forecast at 350 trillion rupiah ($21.4 billion) next year after officials revised ingredient cost estimates lower by a third, said the head of the newly created National Nutrition Agency. That marks a 22% drop from spending plans earlier this year. (source BBG)
- The Jakarta Composite was one of the few major bourses down today falling -0.50%
- IDR was strong up +.375% to 16,293
- Bonds were strong across the curve with yields lower. 10YR lower by -6bp at 6.69%
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times BST)
May-26 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 27-May | 0001 | May | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 27-May | 1100 | May | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-May | 1600 | --- | BOE's Pill on MP panel at Austria National Bank |
| 29-May | 1000 | --- | BOE's Breeden at conference on nonbank fin. sector |
| 29-May | 1545 | --- | BOE's Saporta panellist on hedge funds' role |
| 29-May | 2000 | --- | BOE's Bailey speech and fireside chat |
| 30-May | 0730 | FQ2 | DMO to release FQ2 (Jul-Sep) issuance ops calendar |
| 02-Jun | 0930 | May | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 02-Jun | 2245 | --- | BOE's Mann fireside chat at Fed |
| 04-Jun | 0930 | May | Final Services / Composite PMI |
| 05-Jun | 0845 | --- | BOE's Greene Opening Remarks at Econdat Conference 2025 |
| 05-Jun | 0930 | May | DMP Data |
| 05-Jun | 0930 | May | Construction PMI |
| 10-Jun | 0001 | May | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 10-Jun | 0700 | Apr/May | Labour Market Survey |
| 11-Jun | 1230 | --- | Chancellor Reeves presents Spending Review |
| 12-Jun | 0700 | Apr | Monthly Activity Data |
CHINA: Country Wrap: Could China Lower its Growth Target
May-26 05:22
- The blowout in Chinese steel exports has likely peaked, as trade barriers mount and domestic production falls, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Exports climbed last year to a nine-year high of 111 million tons, but are forecast to moderate by 3% in 2025 before dropping more sharply by a third in 2026, the bank said in a note on Friday. The biggest headwind to sales is the substantial number of ongoing anti-dumping investigations around the world, the bank said. (source BBG)
- If job creation is robust and debt is contained, annual economic growth of around 4 per cent is feasible for the 2026-30 period, former economic official Xu Lin says. A former senior economic planner has called for China's annual growth target to be lowered for the next five years, factoring in the likelihood of a protracted rivalry with the United States and the need to solve deep-rooted structural problems in China. Xu Lin, who helped draft Beijing's five-year plan for decades while an official at the National Development and Reform Commission, made the comments as the world's second-largest economy is increasingly relying on economic planning for continued growth. Compared with some market estimates of around 4.5 per cent annual growth from 2026-30, he said the potential growth rate and growth target figure should be around 4 per cent in the next five to 10 years, owing to China's shrinking population, its falling savings and production rate, and other headwinds. (source SCMP via BBG)
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1833 Per USD; Estimate 7.1766
- Bonds remain in a tight range with CGB10YR 1.68% (-1bps) today
EURUSD TECHS: Bull Phase Extends
May-26 05:21
- RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.1406 @ 06:20 BST May 26
- SUP 1: 1.1259 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1134/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
- SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10
EURUSD is trading higher today, extending the current bull phase. Trend conditions are bullish and MA studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Sights are on 1.1453, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 1.1134, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.
