INDIA: Country wrap: February PMIs Showing Improving Outlook
Feb-21 06:02
- India’s February preliminary PMI’s were released today and provided further guidance as to the improving outlook for the Indian economy. The PMI Manufacturing for February was slightly softer than January but at 57.1, remains very strong. The MPI Services was stronger than the month prior at 61.1, from 56.5. This saw the PMI Composite rise to +60.6 from 57.7. The PMI services release was the strongest since early 2024 with the employment component up to 56.4. (source: MNI – Market News)
- The Indian pharmaceutical industry is unlikely to face significant disruption from potential US retaliatory tariffs, as its exports primarily consist of low-cost, generic drugs and supply up to 40 per cent of the US's generic medicines (source: BBG)
- India’ s NIFTY 50 is down -0.50% in early trade and on track for a weekly decline of over -0.50%
- INR: the rupee is opening modestly better up +0.05% to 86.61
- Bonds are better bid at the open with the 10YR IGB at 6.7%
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BUND TECHS: (H5) Approaching The 20-Day EMA
Jan-22 06:01
- RES 4: 137.75 Low Dec 10
- RES 3: 135.15 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 132.37 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.15 High Jan 21
- PRICE: 131.82 @ 05:44 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 131.00 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 130.23 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
Bund futures are holding on to their recent gains. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Sights are on 132.41, the 20-day EMA. The medium-term trend is unchanged, it remains bearish. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low, a break would resume the downtrend.
CHINA: Country Wrap: China Tariffs Not off the Table.
Jan-22 05:22
- Taiwan’s December exports were up +20.8% YoY, marking the largest expansion since February 2022. (source: MNI – Market News)
- Trump Says He Could Hit China With 10% Tariff From Next Month (source: BBG)
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1696 Per USD; Estimate 7.2659
- Suggestions that China tariffs are not off the table rocked the major China bourses, all down today with the Hang Seng -1.30%, CSI 300 -0.95%, Shanghai -0.91% and Shenzhen -1.04%.
- Bonds: yields resumed their decline with the 10YR 1.647% (-2.5bps)
ASIA STOCKS: Equities Mixed, Tech Higher, China Equities Lower On Tariff Talk
Jan-22 05:08
- Asian equities are trading mixed today as investors weighed optimism around U.S. infrastructure and AI investment initiatives under President Trump against renewed tariff concerns on Chinese goods. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Taiwan's Taiex led gains, up 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively, boosted by tech stocks like SoftBank (+8.9%) and TSMC (+2.7%) following Trump's AI investment announcements. South Korea's Kospi added 1.2%, with nuclear energy and construction stocks rallying on expectations of increased U.S. infrastructure spending.
- In contrast, Chinese shares underperformed, with the CSI 300 down as much as 1.3% amid concerns over potential 10% tariffs on Chinese imports. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also dropped 1.3%, reflecting weaker sentiment in the region.
- Australia's ASX 200 is 0.35% higher, while In New Zealand, the NZX 50 was flat after inflation data showed annual CPI steady at 2.2%, while Pacific Edge fell 5% following U.S. legal challenges.
- The broad MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up 0.2%, reflecting the uneven performance across the region.
