INDIA: Country Wrap: CPI Continues to Decline

• RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)           
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number          
• RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.470 High Apr 11                                    
• PRICE: 107.410 @ 06:12 BST Apr 14  
• SUP 1: 118.253/117.680 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 / 1       
• SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27   
• SUP 3: 117.126 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle  
• SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support    

Bobl futures remain below their recent highs. The latest move down - for now, appears corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract is overbought, a move down is allowing this condition to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low.

JGB futures are stronger, +8 compared to the settlement levels, sitting near the middle of today’s range.

• In the final report, Feb. industrial production was revised down to 2.3% m/m from 2.5%. Japan’s operating ratio fell to 104.1 in Feb. compared to 105.3 in the previous month.
• (MNI) The BoJ will manage monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% price target sustainably and stably, Governor Kazuo Ueda told lawmakers Monday. The BoJ will examine the future economy, prices and financial markets without precondition, he added.
• Cash US tsys are 2-3bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session. The US calendar is light this week, with the highlights being Retail Sales data and Fedspeak from Powell and Waller on Wednesday.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 11bps cheaper across benchmarks, with a steepener curve. The benchmark 20-year yield is 7.9bps higher at 2.407% ahead of tomorrow's supply. The current yield is 10-15bps higher than last month’s auction level.
• The swap curve has twist-steepened, with rates 2bps lower to 5bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty apart from 20-year supply.