MALAYSIA: Country Wrap: Consumer Sector Expected to Remain Resilient
Aug-21 05:27
- Malaysia’s palm oil industry is unlikely to face significant disruption from US market restrictions, as shipments to the country make up a small fraction of overall exports, the Plantation and Commodities Ministry (KPK). The ministry shared that Malaysia exported 191,231 tonnes of palm oil to the US in 2024, accounting for just 1.1% of total exports. “The reliance of US buyers on Malaysian palm oil, particularly those certified under the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil standard, makes substitution difficult. (source Business Today)
- Malaysia’s consumer sector is expected to remain resilient, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, policy measures and structural growth drivers, MBSB Investment Bank said. In a research note, the investment bank said measures under the 13th Malaysia Plan, including higher minimum wages, cash aid and fuel subsidies, would help sustain household incomes. Together with the recent 25-basis-point cut in the overnight policy rate, these initiatives are expected to boost disposable incomes and support household spending power. “This is further supported by stable labour market conditions, a benign inflation outlook and a firm recovery in tourism, with stronger ASEAN and Chinese arrivals fueling retail, food and beverages, and discretionary demand. “On the cost side, a firmer ringgit and easing input costs should improve margins, enhancing earnings visibility,” MBSB said. (source BBG)
- The FTSE Malay KLCI is up modestly by +0.28% today after yesterday's falls of -0.13%. The ongoing weakness sees the index above all major moving averages at 1,592, the nearest being the 20-day EMA of 1,563.
- MYR has had a minor bounce today with gains of +0.10%, to be one of the better performers of its regional peers. The recent sell off has seen the Ringgit near to the 20-day EM of 4.2288 and today's minor rally represents somewhat of a bounce off that key technical.
- Bonds are rallying across the curve with the MGS10yr -3bp at 3.36%
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GBPUSD: Monitoring Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
Jul-22 05:23
- RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 3: 1.3681/3789 High Jul 04 / 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3620 High Jul 10
- RES 1: 1.3517 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3472 @ 06:23 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16 and the short-term bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD continues to trade above its recent lows. For now, short-term gains appear corrective and a bear threat remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of trendline support currently at 1.3480 - drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach strengthens a bear theme, exposing 1.3335 next, the May 20 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3517, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a potential base.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jul-22 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 22-Jul | 0700 | Jun | Public Sector Finances |
| 22-Jul | 1015 | ---- | BOE Bailey At TSC On FSR |
| 23-Jul | 0001 | Jun | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 24-Jul | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 1100 | Jul | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25-Jul | 0001 | Jul | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Jul | 0700 | Jun | Retail Sales |
| 28-Jul | 1100 | Jul | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Jul | 0001 | Jul | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 29-Jul | 0930 | Jun | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
| 01-Aug | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 05-Aug | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
| 06-Aug | 0930 | Jul | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 07-Aug | 1200 | --- | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 07-Aug | 1230 | --- | BOE Press Conference |
| 07-Aug | 1400 | Jul | Decision Maker Panel data |
CHINA: Country Wrap: ETF Buying by SWF Rises
Jul-22 05:18
- The Shanghai Securities News reported that Central Huijin (China's Sovereign Wealth Fund) purchased CNY200bn of 10 broad based ETF's in Q2 to establish itself as a cornerstone investor in markets.
- The China Securities Journal reported that the mutual fund industry in China has seen total assets under management surpass CNY34 trillion ($4.7tn) by the end of the second quarter.
- China and Hong Kong markets are up modestly, the HSI above 25000 and the CSI 300 around 4100. Onshore media noted the strong buying of local China market ETFs from the sovereign wealth fund through Q2 of this year.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1460 Per USD; Estimate 7.1640
- The 10yr CGB is at at 1.68% in this morning's trading.
