INDIA: Country Wrap: CII Predicts +6.4 - 6.7% GDP Growth in 2025
- India is increasingly becoming central to the global investment landscape as mega forces that reshape economies and markets, like demographic change, digitalization, energy transition and global supply chain realignment combine to bring in long-term changes for the high growth economy, a report by BlackRock Investment Institute has said. (source Economic Times)
- The country's economy is projected to grow by 6.4-6.7% during the current financial year says the President of the Confederation of Indian Industry. 'At at time when global economic and political volatility is at its highest in decades, India stands out as a bright spot," he said. (source Economic Times)
- India's NIFTY 50 is doing very little in their morning session and will need a strong rally to erase the gains week to date of -0.92%
- The Rupee is doing little in the morning session yet remains +0.18% up for the week.
- Bonds are drifting higher in yield to finish the week with the 10yr at 6.30% to be back where it started.
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CHINA: Country Wrap: Consumers Being Cautious
- Chinese consumer spending faltered during a major holiday even as more people hit the road, suggesting a trade truce with the US is failing to turn around sentiment in an economy reeling from Donald Trump’s tariffs. Travelers spent more than 42.7 billion yuan ($5.9 billion) during a total of 119 million domestic trips made during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival public holiday, each up more than 5% from a year earlier, figures provided by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism showed on Tuesday. (source BBG)
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi used his first meeting with new US Ambassador David Perdue to complain about recent actions by Washington, underscoring a downturn in relations between the world’s two biggest economies. “Unfortunately, the US has recently introduced a series of negative measures on unfounded grounds, undermining China’s legitimate rights and interests,” Wang said during the sit down in Beijing, according to a Chinese government statement. (source BBG)
- The Hang Seng rose +0.72% today, the CSI 300 was up +0.52%, Shanghai up +0.43% and Shenzhen up +0.88%
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1886 Per USD; Estimate 7.2005
- Bonds are seeing limited movement with the CGB10YR at 1.70. The CGB10YR has traded in a tight range of 1.61-1.71 since early April.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Still Bullish
- RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5565.23 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 9 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the key bull trigger
- RES 1: 5475.00 High May 20
- PRICE: 5389.00 @ 06:12 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 534.61 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5262.93 50-day EMA and a key support
- SUP 3: 5142.00 Low May 2
- SUP 4: 5055.00 Low Apr 30
The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish and a recent pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5262.93, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a possible reversal.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 107.812 0.618 proj of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 107.775 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 107.600 High Apr 30
- RES 1: 107.405/550 High May 27 and 30 / High May 7 and 23
- PRICE: 107.350 @ 06:04 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 107.255 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 107.195/070 Low May 22 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.965 Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106.928 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle
Schatz futures are in consolidation mode. A bull cycle that started May 13, remains intact. The recent breach of 107.335, the May 12 / 20 high, continues to signal a stronger reversal and has exposed 107.550, the May 7 / 23 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. For bears, a deeper pullback would instead signal scope for an extension towards 106.965, the Apr 9 low. The bear trigger is 107.070, the May 13 low.
