INDONESIA: Country Wrap: BI Calls for Stronger IMF
Apr-30 05:16
- Minister of Investment and Downstream Industry stated that realized downstream investment in the first quarter of 2025 reached IDR 136.3 trillion, marking a 79.82% increase compared to the same period in 2024, which stood at IDR 75.8 trillion. This downstream investment accounts for 29.3% of the total investment realization in Q1 2025, which amounted to IDR 465.2 trillion. (source Business Indonesia)
- Governor of the Indonesian Central Bank (BI) has called for a stronger role by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in safeguarding global economic stability in the face of rising trade tensions and protectionist policies, particularly from major economies such as the United States. Speaking at the IMF–World Bank Spring Meetings held in Washington Perry stressed that the IMF must be proactive in promoting open international trade systems to maintain global growth momentum. (source Indo Business Post)
- Indonesia's Jakarta Composite continued its good run gaining +0.45 and is up over 4% for the month.
- The rupiah had one of its better days of the year this year gaining +0.58% to 16,665
- Indonesia bond yields were mixed with intermediate maturities leaking higher whilst longer bonds saw lower yields. The 10YR is at 6.88% -1bps today.
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EQUITIES: Goldman Cut S&P 500 Forecasts
Mar-31 05:15
Goldman Sachs have reduced their “S&P 500 3-month and 12-month return forecasts to -5% and +6% (previously +0% and +16%). Based on market prices at the end of last week, these suggest S&P 500 index levels of roughly 5,300 and 5,900, respectively”.
- They note that “higher tariffs, weaker economic growth, and greater inflation than we previously assumed lead us to cut our S&P 500 EPS growth forecasts to +3% in 2025 (from +7%) and +6% in 2026 (from +7%). Our new EPS estimates are $253 and $269, respectively. These estimates are below both the top-down strategist consensus and the bottom-up consensus of equity analysts”.
- Their economists “estimate a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters a recession during the next 12 months”.
- They “continue to recommend investors watch for an improvement in the growth outlook, more asymmetry in market pricing, or depressed positioning before trying to trade a market bottom”.
- Although their “sentiment Indicator has declined sharply during the last few weeks (to -1.2), it remains above levels reached at the troughs of other major sell-offs during recent years (-2.0 or lower)”.
BUND TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Extends
Mar-31 05:11
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 130.26 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 129.41 Low Jan 14 and a key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 129.33@ 05:54 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 128.65 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 127.74 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 127.20 Low Mar 17
- SUP 4: 126.53 Low Mar 11 and the bear trigger
Bund futures have started the week on a bullish note, extending the recovery that started Mar 11. Recent gains are considered corrective, however, the recent breach of the 20-day EMA has exposed resistance at 129.41, the Jan 14 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open the 130.00 handle and 130.26, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch lies at 127.74, the Mar 25 low.
CHINA: Country Wrap: Gradual Recovery Continues with PMIs.
Mar-31 05:11
- * The ongoing, gradual improvement in economic data was evident in today's March PMI release. The Manufacturing PMI for March edged up to +50.5, from +50.2 in February, ahead of expectations. This was the highest reading since March last year. New orders were very strong, rising +51.8. Large enterprises' contribution was the biggest component. The employment component slipped to +48.2, from +48.6. The Non-manufacturing PMI improved also rising to +50.8, from +50.4 prior. Within the Non-manufacturing, the largest positive contributor was Business activity expectations which rose do +57.2, from +56.6. (source: MNI -Market News)
- China’s Finance Ministry will inject USD$69bn into the four major banks via share placements in a bid to shore up their capital position to support lending (source: MOF)
- China's equity markets are down heavily today with the Hang Seng down -1.7%, CSI 300 down -1.00%, Shanghai down -0.95% and Shenzhen down -2.05%.
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1782 Per USD; Estimate 7.2644
- Bonds are marginally lower in yield, following the injection of liquidity during the OMO. CGB 10YR 1.81%
