CHINA: Country Wrap: AI Patents 40% of Global
May-30 05:14
- China has built a relatively comprehensive artificial intelligence (AI) industrial system, with the value of its core sector nearing 600 billion yuan (about 83.45 billion U.S. dollars) by April 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced on Thursday. These details were included in an introduction to China's AI development delivered by NDRC official Huang Ru at the China-Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Forum, which was held in north China's Tianjin Municipality on May 29. Huang highlighted that China's AI patent applications have surpassed 1.5 million in number, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the global total. (source Xinhua)
- China may boost its pledged supplementary lending (PSL) facility and offer interest subsidies in the second quarter to help stabilize trade amid U.S. tariff pressure, Securities Times reports, citing analysts. The tools are also expected to help China expand investment, report said, without giving details such as the amount of the loans. The PSL is a monetary policy tool offered by the Chinese central bank to provide low-cost, long-term funding to policy banks, which fund government-prioritized sectors. The policy support loans are seen as “quasi-fiscal” stimulus, to support targeted sectors without broad-based monetary easing (source Securities Times)
- China's Hang Seng fell -1.48% today and is on track for a five day decline of -1.60%; CSI 300 is down -0.33% and -0.94% for the week, Shanghai down -0.31% yet remains just in positive territory, up +0.14% and Shenzhen is down -0.94% leaving it just +0.05% higher for the week.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1848 Per USD; Estimate 7.1708
- The 10YR CGB is lower by -1.5bp, retracing yesterday's sell off. The 10YR CGB has traded in a 1.62-1.71% yield range all month as the PBOC maintains liquidity with modest daily injections most days.
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Historical bullets
GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
Apr-30 05:11
- RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
- RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29
- PRICE: 1.3391 @ 06:10 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 1.3280 Low Apr 28
- SUP 2: 1.3202 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3041/3002 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The move higher highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 1.3202, the 20-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
Apr-30 05:05
- RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.780 High Apr 22
- PRICE: 119.400 @ 05:45 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 119.180 Low Apr 23
- SUP 2: 118.996 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 118.060 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 117.680 Low Apr 9 and a key support
Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent highs and a bull cycle remains in play. The steep sell-off between Apr 7 - 9 is considered corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high, strengthening bullish conditions. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. Firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low. The 20-day EMA, an important short-term support, is at 118.996.
AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Cheaper After CPI Beat, Chance 50bp Cut In May Gone
Apr-30 05:05
ACGBs (YM flat & XM +2.0) slightly mixed on the day but 1-4bps cheaper after today’s Q1 CPI data.
- Q1 headline and underlying inflation printed 0.1pp higher than expected but the trimmed mean at 2.9% y/y is below the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target band for the first time since Q4 2021.
- Cash US tsys are slightly mixed in today's Asia-Pac session.
- Cash ACGBs are flat to 2bps richer on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at flat.
- Swap rates are flat to 4bps lower, with the curve flatter.
- The bills strip has twist-flattened, with pricing -5 to +3.
- The data is close to the RBA’s expectations and at this stage consistent with inflation sustainably remaining within the band. Thus, another 25bp rate cut to 3.85% is likely on May 20, assuming that easing is consistent with the RBA’s updated outlook.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer across meetings after today’s data. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 3% probability, with a cumulative 112bps of easing priced by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see CoreLogic Home Values, Trade Balance and Q1 Terms of Trade data.
- The AOFM plans to sell A$1200mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Friday.
