POLAND: Countercyclical Buffer Could Return in Q4
- The Financial Stability Committee are to consider reimposing the countercyclical systemic risk buffer for banks – currently at 0% after being removed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The 0% buffer has been retained for the rest of Q3, meaning the buffer could be reinstated at some point in Q4. The buffer dropping to zero was estimated to free around PLN 30bln in bank capital.
- Premier Morawiecki is expected to attend a signing ceremony to formally confirm the deal with US’ Westinghouse for the first Polish nuclear power plant. The deal and announcement is largely as expected, with the government trailing the plans for a few months and signing a bridging loan for the deal in February.
- There are no key releases due Wednesday, however the finance ministry auction 2025, 2028, 2029 and 2033 bonds this morning.
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Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Sights Are On Key Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
- RES 3: 1.3732 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
- RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3640 High Aug 25
- PRICE: 1.3586 @ 07:06 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Aug 21
- SUP 2: 1.3465 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3390 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
USDCAD is holding on to its recent gains. Last week’s gains reinforces the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.3655, the May 26 high. Note that a trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3731 and represents an objective further out. Support to watch is 1.3465, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal the start of a correction.
UK: Markets Closed On Monday
A quick reminder that the observance of a UK bank holiday will result in the closure of UK financial markets today. The observance of the holiday in London will also thin out liquidity in wider financial markets, particularly in GBP FX crosses.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
- RES 3: 0.6589 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6499 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6488 High Aug 24
- PRICE: 0.64296 @ 06:54 BST Aug 28
- SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
- SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6499. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6589. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, would pave the way for weakness towards 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low. On the upside, clearance of the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a stronger correction.
