POLAND: Could See First CHF Bond in a Decade as Rates Look Attractive

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.07 High May 15 
• PRICE: 162.50 @ 07:14 GMT May 19
• SUP 1: 162.23/15 50-day EMA / Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY maintains a bearish tone following the pullback from its recent high. The move down is for now, considered corrective. However, the cross is testing a key support at 162.23, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high.

• RES 4: 93.59 High May 8  
• RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance      
• RES 2: 92.28 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 92.03 High May 16                            
• PRICE: 91.73 @ Close May 16
• SUP 1: 90.96 Low May 15 and the bear trigger                                          
• SUP 2: 90.92 76.4% retracement of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally
• SUP 3: 90.47 Low Apr 11    
• SUP 4: 89.99 Low Apr 9 and a key support    

Gilt futures traded sharply lower last Wednesday, extending the current bear cycle. The impulsive sell-off strengthens a bearish theme. The move down exposes 90.92, 76.4% of the Apr 9 - May 2 rally. A break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and open 90.47, the Apr 11 low. Note that the strong rally from last Thursday’s low does ease bearish pressure. Resistance to watch is at 92.28, the 20-day EMA. A break would be bullish.

Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:

• Fitch affirmed Greece at BBB-, Outlook revised to Positive
• Fitch affirmed Slovakia at A-; Outlook Stable
• Moody's downgraded the United States of America to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook changed to stable
• S&P affirmed South Africa at BB-; Outlook Positive
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed the United Kingdom at AA, Stable Trend
• Scope upgraded Slovenia to A+, Outlook Stable