NORWAY: Cost-driven Upward Revision To 2026 Oil and Gas Investment Expectations
Norwegian oil and gas investment is expected to be NOK249bln in 2026, according to Statistics Norway’s Q4 oil and gas investment survey. That’s an upward revision of 8.4% (NOK19bln) relative to last quarter, and suggests the Y/Y decrease in nominal investment next year will be smaller than previously assumed. However, Statistics Norway notes that most of the upward revision is due to higher costs on some field development projects. This suggests the Y/Y change in real investments is still likely to be negative, and drag on 2026 headline GDP growth.
- Norges Bank projects real petroleum investment growth of 5.0% Y/Y in 2025, but annual growth is then expected to be negative in 2026 (-5.0%), 2027 (-5.0%) and 2028 (-4.0%).
- Relative to the Q3 survey, the nominal increase is “mainly driven by higher figures for field development and fields on stream, but estimates are also revised upwards for all other main categories, except for exploration”. However, “The higher estimate for field development is mainly due to higher costs being reported for some development projects”.
- “Since last autumn, the total costs of the ongoing projects have increased by about 60 billion, or 17 percent. Since this concerns the total costs of the projects, it also includes future costs, even after 2026, until the development projects are on stream.”….” A number of different reasons for the cost increases are mentioned in the state budget. The most important of these are increased prices for input factors, exchange rate effects, and that some developments require higher investment activity than previously assumed.”
- Statistics Norway also collects investment intentions for other industries. In 2026, manufacturing investments are expected at NOK44bln (broadly unchanged vs the previous survey), while electricity, gas and steam investments are expected at NOK54bln (also little changed relative to Q3).
- Actual seasonally adjusted (nominal) investment data for Q3, which will feed into the national accounts released at the end of this month:
- Oil and gas: -2.8 %
- Manufacturing: 7.1%
- Electricity supply: 0.6 %
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