SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $43.272 - 2.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 3: $43.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $42.974 - 2.382 proj of the Jul 31 - Aug 14 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: $42.972 - High Sep 16
- PRICE: $41.883 @ 8:12 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: $40.635 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $39.042 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 and a key support
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The metal traded higher last Friday, delivering a fresh cycle high. The extension earlier this week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are on $42.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $40.635, the 20-day EMA.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6569/6625 High Aug 14 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:06 BST Aug 18
- SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16
AUDUSD is trading inside a range. From a trend perspective, the condition remains bullish and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. Key resistance to monitor, has been defined at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 0.6677, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 0.6419, the Aug 1 low.
FOREX: JP Morgan Recommend Tactical Long NZD/SEK On CB Divergence
Ahead of this week’s central bank decision’s JP Morgan recommend tactically going long NZD/SEK (spot ref 5.6642; stop loss 5.5226).
- JP Morgan are currently the only sell-side analyst surveyed by Bloomberg expecting the RBNZ to hold rates at 3.25% on Wednesday. They note that “market pricing is more front-loaded relative to the J.P. Morgan house view, with a further two cuts priced by year-end. Given resilient labor, card spending and CPI data we regard pricing as excessive and think rates are vulnerable to a sell-off, narrowing NZ-US rate differentials and imparting a modestly positive impulse for the exchange rate”.
- Meanwhile, they consider risks to Wednesday’s Riksbank decision as slightly dovish. “Terminal rate pricing aligns with our economists' base case of 1.75%, but they lean towards an earlier delivery than the market expects (Sep) which could pressure SEK as the September meeting nears. Growth outcomes will be in the driver’s seat: weak data skews risks to the downside, though inflation complicates the outlook. The 2Q GDP indicator was weaker than expected, and while some June data suggests potential upside, overall data and surveys lean very dovish compared to Riksbank’s optimistic forecasts”.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Chinese Ministry of Commerce advisor comments on trade talks
A Chinese Ministry of Commerce advisor comments on the outlook for trade talks with the U.S - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
