GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
- RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 1.3656 @ 16:35 BST Jul 3
- SUP 1: 1.3591/63 20-day EMA / Low Jul 02
- SUP 2: 1.34465 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3348 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low
- SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. For now, intraday sell-offs on Wednesday and Thursday appear corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.3591, the 20-day EMA. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3446. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3789, the Jul 1 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
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US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage rebounds to $153.177B this afternoon from $135.841B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 34. Usage had fallen to $54.772B on Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B.
EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Mar 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1455 High Jun 03
- PRICE: 1.1381 @ 16:14 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: 1.1307 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1182/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
- SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10
A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and Monday’s gains and fresh short-term cycle high reinforce current conditions. The breach of 1.1419, the May 26 high, confirms a resumption of the trend and opens 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Support to watch lies at 1.1182, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.1065, the May 12 low.
EUROPEAN FISCAL: Italy Central Govt Deficit Improves In May
- The Italian finance ministry reports a preliminary central government budget deficit of E11.4bn in May for an improvement from the E13bn in May 2024 and E16.2bn in May 2023.
- The cumulative deficit of E80.4bn over the five first months of the year tracks a little inside the E82bn seen in the first five months of both of 2024 and 2023.
- That improvement looks a little better still in % GDP terms considering nominal GDP growth of 2.1% Y/Y in 1Q25.
- Italy displayed impressive fiscal consolidation through last year, with a deficit of 3.4% GDP vs the 3.8% GDP government forecast, supporting more positive ratings action.
- The European Commission projects the Italian deficit at 3.3% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026 to just about return to sub-3% GDP deficits per Maastricht rules, while it sees Italian growth below 1% through 2026.
