EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 0.8648 76.4% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 2: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8575 High Jun 23
- PRICE: 0.8544 @ 16:15 BST Jun 27
- SUP 1: 0.8503/8475 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.8459 Low Jun 11
- SUP 3: 0.8407 Low Jun 4
- SUP 4: 0.8356 Low May 29 and the bear trigger
EURGBP has pulled back from its recent highs but remains in a bull cycle. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position - this reinforces the current uptrend. Scope is seen for a test of 0.8592 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8475, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
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EURGBP TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Cycle Low
- RES 4: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- RES 3: 0.8541 High May 2
- RES 2: 0.8493 High May 9
- RES 1: 0.8447 50-day EMA and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 0.8387 @ 16:19 BST May 28
- SUP 1: 0.8373 Low May 27
- SUP 2: 0.8359 1.236 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8277 1.618 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and a fresh cycle low yesterday reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA at 0.8447. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a stronger reversal and shift attention to resistance at 0.8541, the May 2 high. On the downside, a resumption of the downtrend would pave the way for a move towards 0.8359, a Fibonacci projection.
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Yields Continue To Back Up
European yields backed up Wednesday, continuing their rise from Tuesday's lows, with Gilts underperforming Bunds.
- A soft long-end Japanese bond auction overnight set a weaker tone for global core FI early.
- In data, ECB 1-year ahead inflation expectations surprisingly rose but longer-term expectations were steady, muting the impact.
- On the day, the UK curve leaned bear steeper to the 10Y segment, with 30Y outperforming. The German curve more clearly bear steepened.
- BTPs led broader gains in much of the session, with 10Y yields falling to the lowest levels since February. 10-year EGB periphery/semi-core spreads tightened 0.3-1.0bps vs Bunds on the day.
- Thursday's calendar includes an appearance by BOE's Bailey; in data we get Spanish retail sales, and Italian confidence indicators and industrial sales.
- Attention for the week is on Friday's flash May inflation readings from Germany, Italy and Spain.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany:
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 1.797%, 5-Yr is up 1.4bps at 2.107%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 2.554%, and 30-Yr is up 2.9bps at 3.031%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 5.5bps at 4.075%, 5-Yr is up 5.4bps at 4.206%, 10-Yr is up 6.1bps at 4.727%, and 30-Yr is up 4.5bps at 5.48%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.4bps at 98.1bps / French OAT down 0.5bps at 67.3bps
US: Trump's Approval On Economy/Trade/Inflation Strengthens
US President Donald Trump has seen his net approval rating on trade, the economy, and inflation all improve from lows seen in late-April, in reaction to a decrease in uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policy.
- Silver Bulletin notes that Trump's approval rating on trade and the economy currently sits at roughly net-10%, with his approval on inflation substantially lower at -19.7%.
- The polling suggests that voters have upgraded their assessment of Trump's handling of key economic issues following a series of talks to dial down tensions with trading partners, particularly China.
- The positive reaction to Trump's tariff rapprochement may signal a more moderate trade policy as deadlines for the conclusion of tariff pauses on China and the EU approach.
Figure 1: Trump's Net Approval on Issues
Source: Silver Bulletin
