AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6439 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 0.6409 @ 16:52 BST Apr 28 
• SUP 1: 0.6344/6302 Low Apr 24 / 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.6181 Low Apr 11  
• SUP 3: 0.6116 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 0.5915 Low Apr 9 and key support  

AUDUSD is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode for now. A bullish theme remains intact. The pair has recently breached a key resistance at 0.6409, the Dec 9 ‘24 high. This breach reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 0.6471 next, the Dec 9 2024 high. Initial key support to monitor is 0.6302, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a concern for bulls.

Option desks reported mixed flows Monday, SOFR leaning towards upside calls, Treasury options revovled around low delta puts. Underlying futures finishing near late session high (TYM5 at 111-30, +14). as such, projected rate cut pricing has gained momentum vs. morning levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -2.7bp (-1.9bp), Jun'25 at -16.7bp (-15.4bp), Jul'25 at -38.1bp (-35.6bp), Sep'25 -58.7bp (-54.6bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • -4,000 SFRH6/0QH6 98.00 call spds, 0.75 midcurve over
  • -5,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.50/95.87 1x call flys, 6.25 vs. 96.59/0.17%
  • Block/screen, -12,000 SFRN5 96.50/97.00 call spds, 7.0 ref 92.265
  • -2,000 SFRZ5 98.00/99.00 call spds, 4.5
  • over +40,000 SFRZ5 95.68 puts, 4.0
  • +5,000 SFRZ5 97.25 calls, 15
  • -6,000 0QU5 97.50/98.00 call sppds, 7.0 vs. 95.86/0.10%
  • +30,000 0QU5/0QZ5 97.50/98.00 call spd spd, 2.0 net flattener
  • 6,000 3QK5 96.62/96.87 call spds ref 96.49
  • 1,500 SFRN5 96.31/96.50 call spds ref 96.245
  • 1,250 2QM5 96.81/97.06 call spds ref 96.725
• Treasury Options:
  • 10,000 Wed weekly 111.75/112.25 call spds, 13 ref 111-27.5
  • 1,500 TYM5 110.5 puts vs. 112/113 call spds ref 111-23.5
  • 2,500 TYM5 111.75 straddles, 143 ref 111-24
  • +12,500 TYM5 110.5/111.5 2x1 put spds, 1 net vs 111-17.5/0.10%
  • Block, 7,500 TYM5 110 puts, 20 vs. 111-12.5/0.25%
  • +6,000 TYM5 111 puts, 40 vs. 111-14/0.41%
  • 10,000 TYM5 107 puts, 2 ref 111-13
  • 15,000 TYM5 106/107 put spds
  • over 5,800 TYM5 109 puts 8 last
  • over 5,000 TYM5 109.5/110.5 put spds, 14 ref 111-16
  • 5,900 TYM5 113 calls, 20 ref 111-15.5

• Stocks are mixed late Monday, off second half lows as markets trade in a quiet narrow session range. Currently, the DJIA trades up up 69.08 points (0.17%) at 40181.55, S&P E-Minis down 7.25 points (-0.13%) at 5542.75, Nasdaq down 66 points (-0.4%) at 17316.22.
• On the positive side, Energy and Utility sector shares led gainers in late trade: Eversource Energy +2.11%, EQT Corp +1.90%, Vistra Corp +1.60%, AES Corp +1.49% and Evergy +1.40%.
• Separately, pharmaceutical and health care stocks traded firm with Centene Corp +3.00%, AbbVie +2.92% and Gilead Sciences +2.65%.
• Paring last week's gains, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors continued to underperform in the second half, semiconductor makers weighing on the IT sector: NVIDIA -3.17%, Micron Technology -2.18%, Zebra Technologies -1.85%, First Solar -1.74% and QUALCOMM -1.42%.
• E-commerce and autos weighed on the Discretionary sector with Tractor Supply -2.70%, eBay Inc -1.85%, Chipotle Mexican Grill -1.44%, Amazon.com -1.36% and Tesla -1.24%.
• Expected earnings announcements after today's close: Alexandria Real Estate, Cadence Design, SBA Comm, Crown Holdings, Welltower, Solaris Energy, Noble Corp, Brown & Brown, Nucor Corp, Teradyne Inc, Universal Health Services, EZCORP and Waste Management Inc.