EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Phase Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3334 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 1.3231 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3191 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 1.3172 @ 16:26 GMT Nov 11
• SUP 1: 1.3010 Low Nov 4 and 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing          

A bear trend in GBPUSD remains intact and recent gains still appear corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.3231. A break of this hurdle would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.3334. For bears, a resumption of the downtrend would open 1.2971, a Fibonacci projection. The bear trigger is 1.3010, Nov 4 and 5 low.                  

• A softer-than-expected ADP jobs release from the US caught the market a little off guard on Tuesday, weighing on the greenback and allowing the USD index to plumb new pullback lows below 99.40.
• ADP noted that “not only is the pace of employment growth shifting lower, it’s doing so in a jagged path across occupations, industries, and geographies. Going forward, instead of being a stable constant, the break-even rate more likely will be constantly moving”.
• Most notable initially was the move for USDJPY, which extended its selloff from the overnight highs to around 80 pips. Downside momentum picked up on a break of the overnight lows, below 154.00 to 153.67 lows before stabilising. We have pointed out that USDJPY continues encounter some resistance above the 154.00 handle, potentially registering an eighth daily high between 154.14-154.49, bolstering the short-term significance of this resistance cluster. First important support to watch lies at 152.70, the 20-day EMA.
• CHF outperforms following late yesterday's optimism on a potential Swiss trade deal with the US. While such a deal would be unlikely to sway SNB rates this year or the next, it should see a moderate upwards revision of 2026 GDP forecasts for the country, which is providing a boost to the Franc. EURCHF sees downside pressure as a function of that at 0.9273, while USDCHF (-0.67%) has tracked back below 0.8000.
• EURUSD broke above Friday’s high to trade back above 1.1600. The 50-day EMA intersects at 1.1627, and a breach would alter the short-term bearish theme.
• It’s worth noting that GBPUSD fully reversed the UK labour market data inspired selloff, however, sterling weakness remains evident through the cross, with EURGBP maintaining its position back above 0.88 for now.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 11/12 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.9%, --)
• 11/12 0920 Fed's Williams Delivers Keynote Speech
• 11/12 1000 Fed's Paulson speaks on Fintech
• 11/12 1020 Fed's Waller Speaks on Payments
• 11/12 1130 US Tsy $69B 17W bill auction
• 11/12 1215 Fed's Bostic Speaks at Atlanta Economics Club
• 11/12 1230 Fed's Miran Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 11/12 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note (91282CPJ4)
• 11/12 1600 Fed's Collins Speaks at Community Banking Conference
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI