GOLD TECHS: Corrective Phase Exposes Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $4161.4/4381.5 - High Oct 22 / High Oct 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $4046.2 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $4022.2 @ 07:22 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 $3900.0 -
- SUP 2: $3853.2 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg
A fresh cycle low this week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement this month has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3853.2. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
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SPAIN DATA: Manufacturing PMI Downward Surprise
The Spanish Manufacturing PMI notably underperformed in September, coming in at 51.5 (53.8 cons; 54.3 August) in its first decline from the prior since April. This marks a three month low: "Weaker gains in both output and new orders signalled", the release concludes. Key highlights below:
- "Weaker gains in both output and new orders. Notably, the rise in production was the softest for four
months. Despite weakening, new order book growth remained solid amid reports of firm demand and new product introductions." - "However, growth was broadly confined to domestic clients as latest data showed a decline in new export orders for the first time in three months. Tariffs and political uncertainty in key markets reportedly restricted export demand."
- "Some instability in the outlook meanwhile weighed on company expectations. Although on average firms are forecasting an improvement in production from present levels, confidence was down on August’s six-month high. An uncertain outlook and slower growth in current new orders meant several firms chose not to replace leavers and renew employee contracts in September. The result was a modest decline in staffing levels for the first time in seven months.
MNI: SPAIN SEP MANUF PMI 51.5 (53.8 FCAST, 54.3 AUG)
- MNI: SPAIN SEP MANUF PMI 51.5 (53.8 FCAST, 54.3 AUG)
SILVER TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: $49.444 - 3.236 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $49.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $47.857 - 2.618 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 1: $47.251 - 2.382 proj of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing
- PRICE: $46.907 @ 08:01 BST Oct 1
- SUP 1: $44.601/43.287 - Low Sep 26 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $40.856 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $38.580 - Low Aug 28
- SUP 4: $36.965 - Low Aug 20
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal has traded higher this week as the bull cycle extends. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reinforcing current conditions. Sights are $47.857 next, a 2.618 projection of the Sep 4 - 16 - 17 price swing. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a climb towards the $48.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $43.287, the 20-day EMA.
