EQUITIES: Corrective Bull Cycle in E-Mini S&P in Play, Resistance at 50-Day EMA

Wires reporting that far-right Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) figurehead Marine Le Pen, along with eight RN MEPs, has been found guilty of embezzlement in relation to jobs for party officials at the European Parliament. Le Monde reports "The sentences will be detailed individually, but are not yet known." As noted a short time ago (see 'FRANCE: Le Pen Embezzelement Verdict Underway', 0935BST), focus will now turn to whether the court imposes a ban on Le Pen running for office as part of her sentence. This ruling would upend the 2027 presidential election, where Le Pen is the current frontrunner. 

No real initial reaction in OATS (both outright and in spread vs. Bunds) as Le Pen is found guilty in the RN embezzlement case.

• Political uncertainty and fiscal risks are set to remain evident in the near term, irrespective of who leads the RN through the next election cycle.
• Our political risk team previously noted that an appeal would be immediate in the event of a guilty verdict, but even this would not remove the bar.
• A recent Constitutional Court ruling declared that an individual can be declared ineligible to run for office even if they have launched an appeal and during that process, they would remain ineligible. There is some language in the wording of the ruling, regarding judges balancing the ineligibility ruling with the 'freedom of voters'.
• In any case this process likely results in a furious political storm, but the outcome is as yet unclear.

• Final Spread: MS+30bps (guidance was MS+32bps area)
• Size: EUR benchmark
• Books in excess of E13.5bln (ex JLM interest)
• Maturity: 07-May-2030
• Settlement: 07-Apr-2025 (T+5)
• Coupon: Long first to 07-May-2026
• Bookrunners:    CITI/CACIB(DM/B&D)/SG
• ISIN:           EU000A2SCAT6
• Timing: Books to close at 10:30BST / 11:30CET, today’s business