EQUITIES: Corrective Bull Cycle in E-Mini S&P in Play, Resistance at 50-Day EMA
Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5102.56. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. Support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. A corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract has breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5618.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 205.39 pts or +0.57% at 36045.38 and the TOPIX ended 16.68 pts higher or +0.63% at 2667.29.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 7.624 pts or -0.23% at 3279.031 and the HANG SENG ended 111.3 pts higher or +0.51% at 22119.41.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 109.52 pts or +0.49% at 22562.44, FTSE 100 higher by 2.51 pts or +0.03% at 8462.17, CAC 40 up 27.68 pts or +0.37% at 7584.44 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 4.05 pts or +0.08% at 5173.51.
- Dow Jones mini up 6 pts or +0.01% at 40695, S&P 500 mini down 9.75 pts or -0.17% at 5579.5, NASDAQ mini down 58.5 pts or -0.3% at 19605.
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FRANCE: Le Pen Found Guilty Of Embezzelement
Wires reporting that far-right Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) figurehead Marine Le Pen, along with eight RN MEPs, has been found guilty of embezzlement in relation to jobs for party officials at the European Parliament. Le Monde reports "The sentences will be detailed individually, but are not yet known." As noted a short time ago (see 'FRANCE: Le Pen Embezzelement Verdict Underway', 0935BST), focus will now turn to whether the court imposes a ban on Le Pen running for office as part of her sentence. This ruling would upend the 2027 presidential election, where Le Pen is the current frontrunner.
OAT: Uncertainty Set To Prevail, Even With Le Pen Found Guilty
No real initial reaction in OATS (both outright and in spread vs. Bunds) as Le Pen is found guilty in the RN embezzlement case.
- Political uncertainty and fiscal risks are set to remain evident in the near term, irrespective of who leads the RN through the next election cycle.
- Our political risk team previously noted that an appeal would be immediate in the event of a guilty verdict, but even this would not remove the bar.
- A recent Constitutional Court ruling declared that an individual can be declared ineligible to run for office even if they have launched an appeal and during that process, they would remain ineligible. There is some language in the wording of the ruling, regarding judges balancing the ineligibility ruling with the 'freedom of voters'.
- In any case this process likely results in a furious political storm, but the outcome is as yet unclear.
EFSF ISSUANCE: Syndication: 5-year May-30: Spread set
- Final Spread: MS+30bps (guidance was MS+32bps area)
- Size: EUR benchmark
- Books in excess of E13.5bln (ex JLM interest)
- Maturity: 07-May-2030
- Settlement: 07-Apr-2025 (T+5)
- Coupon: Long first to 07-May-2026
- Bookrunners: CITI/CACIB(DM/B&D)/SG
- ISIN: EU000A2SCAT6
- Timing: Books to close at 10:30BST / 11:30CET, today’s business
