EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 1.0268 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.0166 High Aug 18 and Channel top from the Feb 10 high
- RES 2: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.0029 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.9954 @ 16:46 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 0.9864 Low Sep 6
- SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9628 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high
EURUSD short-term gains are considered corrective, confirmed by the dip back below 1.00 ahead of the Thursday close. The pair remains in a downtrend and this week’s low print reinforces bearish conditions. The move lower on Tuesday, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend as the pair heads south inside its bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact and the focus is on 0.9800 next. Initial resistance is seen at 1.0029, the 20-day EMA.
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EURUSD TECHS: In A Range
- RES 4: 1.0449 High Jul 5
- RES 3: 1.0361 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
- RES 2: 1.0336 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0294 High Aug 2
- PRICE: 1.0236 @ 15:15 BST Aug 9
- SUP 1: 1.0097 Low Aug 27 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
EURUSD traded slightly higher into the Tuesday close, but remains inside a range with the pair continuing to consolidate. The short-term outlook is bullish, and the key near-term support is 1.0097, the Jul 27 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0361 and marks a key resistance. Weakness below 1.0097 would alter the picture. This would expose parity once again and 0.9952, the Jul 14 low.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: WI 3Y
WI holding steady heading into the $42B 3Y auction (91282CFE6) 1300ET cut-off.
- 3Y WI is currently running around 3.20% (same as this morning's 52W bill high yield) vs. last month's 3.093% high yield.
OPTIONS: Schatz Unwind, Bund P/S Buying
Tuesday's Europe rates / bond options flow included:
- RXU2 155.5/153.5 1x2 put spread bought for 2 in 1k
- DUU2 110.70/110.90cs vs 110.00/109.80ps, sold the ps at 10 in 5k
