JGBS: [CORRECT] MOF Headlines On Next Year's Issuance

• Both precious and industrial metals are under pressure early Tuesday, with Palladium (-3%) and Platinum (-3.2%) prices leading Silver (-2.3%) and Gold (-2%) lower.
• A likely combination of positioning unwinds and profit-taking are in focus as investors look for a potential trade deal between the US and China, helping to loosen up supply as well as an expected Fed cut tomorrow playing out. 

The ECB’s Q3 BLS broadly echoes the signals from yesterday’s September credit data and SAFE survey. There was a small net tightening in credit standards in Q3, and while net demand increased, it remains weak. Geopolitical and trade risks were cited as factors contributing to tighter standards and subdued demand. Overall, the survey doesn’t signal an urgent need for another rate cut, but suggests the door should not be closed to such a move. Too hawkish a signal from President Lagarde on Thursday could reflexively promote further tightening in credit standards/conditions.  

The full survey is here: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2025q3~d3e99917cc.en.html

Standards: Small unexpected net tightening

• “Euro area banks reported a small unexpected net tightening of credit standards for loans or credit lines to firms in the third quarter of 2025 (net percentage of banks of 4%)”
• “Across the four largest euro area countries, banks in Germany reported a tightening of credit standards while banks in France, Italy and Spain reported unchanged credit standards.”
• “Banks reported unchanged credit standards for housing loans and a moderate net tightening for consumer credit (net percentages of 0% and 5% respectively). Changes in banks’ risk perceptions were the main drivers of this tightening for consumer credit. “

Demand: Increased, but remains weak

• “Firms’ demand for loans increased slightly in the third quarter of 2025 (net percentage of 2%) but remained weak overall.”
• “Several banks referred to a dampening impact on loan demand from global uncertainty and the related trade tensions. Across the four largest euro area countries, banks in Germany, Italy and Spain reported a net increase in firms’ loan demand, whereas banks in France reported another marked net decrease. “
• “Banks reported a further net increase in demand for housing loans, while demand for consumer credit was broadly unchanged (net percentages of 28% and 1% respectively)“

TYZ5 111.50p, bought for '03 in 10k.