MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – November 2025

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Still Waiting For That Inflation Undershoot

• The Eurozone November flash inflation round will be split across two weeks, with France, Spain, Italy and Germany all scheduled this Friday but the Netherlands and the Eurozone-wide release not following until next Tuesday.
• Overall, analysts expect fairly steady developments in the Eurozone aggregate measures. Headline HICP is expected to firm a tenth to around 2.2% Y/Y, while core is seen holding at 2.4%.
• Markets still embed a light easing bias on ECB expectations ahead, with ECB-dated OIS pricing 9bps of easing through September 2026. Headline inflation is expected to fall below the 2% target in 2026 and 2027 (and possibly 2028, pending the ECB’s December projections).