US DATA: Core PCE Inflation Steady In August, Supercore M/M Stays Elevated

August's Core PCE reading of 0.227% M/M was basically exactly in line with expectations (0.22% MNI median), and came with a downward revision to July's figure (now 0.235%, was (0.273%). That marks the slowest monthly M/M print in 4 months.

• As flagged in our preview from the Q2 national accounts revisions, the profile of PCE looked a little stronger at the start of Q2 (April rev up 0.02pp to 0.19% and May 0.03pp to 0.23%) but the June reading was unchanged at 0.263%.
• Core goods prices contracted by 0.11% M/M, the weakest since March, versus services which hit a 6-month high 0.325% M/M after 0.296%.
• The core services non-housing reading ("Supercore") printed 0.33% M/M, a slight tickup from 0.32% prior for a 6-month high, as market-based services ticked up to 0.26% (0.20% prior).
• For its part, housing PCE also gained, to 0.36% from 0.27% prior for a 5-month high.
• Headline PCE was similarly revised, with the latest reading of 0.265% M/M unrounded in line with expectations as well.
• Note that the revisions go all the way back to Q1 2024 - 2024 monthly Core PCE now registers an average monthly 0.229% M/M (was 0.215%).
• Core PCE run rates are currently a little under 3%:3M moving average annual rate 2.9% (3.0% prior) / 6-month 2.5%, lowest since January (3.0% prior).
• For supercore however on those metrics it's running at 3.5% 3M (5-month high, up from 3.0% prior) and 6M 2.7% (lowest since 2020, from 3.1% prior), as the softer March/April prints are fully accounted for.
• Overall, Supercore PCE continues to moderate Y/Y but there are some upside trends developing in core goods and, to a lesser extent, broader services and core PCE.