CANADA DATA: Core CPI Latest Trends
Further moderation in BoC's preferred core metrics, whilst CPIxFE and CPIX lift but are still low, especially CPIX.
Core CPI (median & trim av - BoC focus):
- % M/M: 0.12 in Mar'24 after 0.12 in Feb'24
- % 3mth ar: 1.3 in Mar'24 after 2.3 in Feb'24
- % 6mth ar: 2.3 in Mar'24 after 2.5 in Feb'24
- % Y/Y: 2.95 in Mar'24 after 3.1 in Feb'24
CPI xFE (ex food & energy):
- % M/M: 0.27 in Mar'24 after 0.13 in Feb'24
- % 3mth ar: 1.9 in Mar'24 after 1.6 in Feb'24
- % 6mth ar: 2.7 in Mar'24 after 2.5 in Feb'24
CPIX (ex 8 most volatile & indirect taxes):
- % M/M: 0.19 in Mar'24 after 0 in Feb'24
- % 3mth ar: 0.8 in Mar'24 after 0.3 in Feb'24
- % 6mth ar: 1.6 in Mar'24 after 1.2 in Feb'24
Source: Bloomberg, MNI
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Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (M4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 3: 149.53 - High Mar 22 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 2: 148.74 - High Jul 24 (cont)
- RES 1: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 145.13 @ 15:40 GMT Mar 15
- SUP 1: 144.60 - Low Dec 08 and 11 (cont)
- SUP 2: 143.44 - Low Oct 31 (cont)
- SUP 3: 143.29 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 22 - Apr 18 - May 12 swing
Recent weakness in JGBs resulted in a low print of 144.90 on Friday. A stronger reversal higher is required to signal the end of the recent corrective phase. The bull trigger has been defined at 147.74, the mid-January high. A break would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. For bears, a resumption of weakness would potentially open the 144.60 support.
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above The Mar 8 Low
- RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3532 @ 16:18 GMT Mar 15
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
- SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD short-term conditions remain bearish, however, a continuation of the latest recovery would undermine this theme and expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.3606, the Feb 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since December 27. For bears, a move below 1.3420, the Mar 8 low, would resume bearish activity and open 1.3359, the Jan 31 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6748 High Jan 5
- RES 3: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 2: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
- RES 1: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6567 @ 16:16 GMT Mar 15
- SUP 1: 0.6552 Low Mar 15
- SUP 2: 0.6478/6443 Low Mar 5 / Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
The latest pullback in AUDUSD appears to be a correction. The pair has pierced support around the 50-day EMA - at 0.6572. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the next key support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high, is required to resume the bull cycle and open 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement.
