METALS: Copper(HGH6) - Breaks Above $535, Looking to Build Momentum Higher

Bitcoin had a range overnight of $105 299k - $108 301k, Asia is currently trading around $107 100k, +0.25%. Bitcoin took another leg lower yesterday as the Crypto space seems to be struggling with a resurgent Dollar. It has never quite recovered from its crash on 10th & 11th October in what was described as the worst liquidation event in Crypto history after dropping almost 15%. The Bitcoin support area is between $95k-$108k and should provide those wanting to express a long a good opportunity to fade. A break below $90k-$95k is needed to signal a deeper correction is potentially underway, this scenario would make a few of those treasury companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheet nervous.

• Bloomberg is reporting that “without a clear macro anchor, liquidity still fragile and ETF inflows slowing, a break below $100,000 is a clear risk, one that could force the market to look for a new floor.”

Fig 1: Bitcoin spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Going into today’s RBA policy decision, RBA-dated OIS pricing implies almost no chance of an easing, with just a 3% probability assigned. 

• As it currently stands, the OIS market has only a 75% chance of a 25bp cut by mid-2026.
• However, that may still be too aggressive as rising annual inflation tends to end easing cycles. 

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Yesterday

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI

• The relationship between liquidity withdrawal / injection and the direction of the bond market seems reasonably certain.  
• A second day of withdrawals sees bond futures weaker, albeit marginally.  
• The 10-Yr is lower by -0.03 at 108.62, maintaining it's position above all major moving averages as it veers away from being overbought on the 14-day Relative Strength Index.
• The 2-Yr is lower by -0.01 at 102.49 as it nears the 200-day EMA of 102.47 and continues to move below being overbought on the 14-day Relative Strength Index.  
• The 10-Yr CGB is steady at 1.79%, looking to establish a new range below 1.80%