COMMODITIES: Copper Trend Condition Remains Bullish, Gold, WTI Rangebound

• +10,000 TYN5 108.5 puts, 3 vs. 110-04.5/0.05%

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates a federal deficit of $314B in May, which if confirmed in Wednesday's Treasury statement would mean the size of the deficit through the first 8 months of the fiscal year (Oct-Sep) came in at $1.363T. That would maintain the highest running total since this point of 2021, and up over $160B from $1.202T in the same period of the prior fiscal year.

• The CBO makes the point that timing effects actually make this year's deficit look a little worse. Taking into account various shifts, "the deficit so far this fiscal year would have been $84 billion (or 7 percent) more than the shortfall at this point last year".
• But overall, revenues increased by $196B (6%), overrun by outlays rising by $357B (8%). There is also this note re tariffs: "Receipts from other sources rose by $43 billion (or 29 percent) relative to the same period last year. Customs duties increased by $30 billion (or 61 percent)...Excise taxes increased by $11 billion (or 18 percent)."
• The CBO "now estimates that if the debt limit remains unchanged, the government’s ability to borrow using extraordinary measures would probably be exhausted between mid-August and the end of September 2025. That estimated range begins about two weeks later than the agency estimated in
  March 2025."
• We await Wednesday's official figures to confirm - though CBO was only $2B off April's official figure in their early estimate ($258B surplus vs $256B CBO est).

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 145.18/146.28 50-day EMA / High May 29 and key resistance   
• PRICE: 144.57 @ 15:57 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

Recent gains in USDJPY are considered corrective and the trend condition remains bearish. Attention is on the next important support at 142.12, the May 27 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low. Moving average studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.28, the May 29 high.