CHILE: Copper Production Declines 4.5% Y/y In September

• While uncertainty remains over the possibility of this Friday's nonfarm payrolls release being delayed, G10 FX option vols are very subdued. While still printing a >1 point premium over realised, implied remains heavily subdued - largely in response to short-end vols realising close to their lowest levels of 2025 and the USD Index sticking so closely to the 50-dma.
• This may reflect the solid pricing for the Fed's October decision (23bps of easing priced) - meaning markets see little chance the government shutdown or data delays will impact the FOMC's easing plans.

As such, the option expiry pipeline is relatively sparse for Friday in particular, meaning markets may be more hesitant to put post-payrolls trades on given the uncertainty around the release. That said, there remain a handful of strikes in EUR and AUD worth monitoring, which could build over the course of the week:

• EUR/USD: $1.1700(E1.1bln), $1.1845-55(E1.9bln), $1.1875(E1.2bln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6600(A$1.5bln)

Figure 1: One-week G10 FX implied vol

Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P.

• MNI: GERMANY SEP FLASH HICP +2.4% Y/Y, +0.2% M/M

• MNI: GERMANY SEP FLASH CPI +2.4% Y/Y, +0.2% M/M