BRAZIL: Copom To Maintain Hawkish Messaging, Ex-President Bolsonaro In Hospital
* Analysts are unanimous that the Copom will leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% for a second...
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SOFR: Mix Of Net Short Setting & Long Cover Seen In Futures On Friday
OI data points to net short setting dominating in most contracts through the greens during Friday’s downtick in SOFR futures, before net long cover became slightly more prominent in the blues.
- The largest outright positioning swings came via net short setting in the late whites/early reds.
| 15-Aug-25 | 14-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,204,188 | 1,200,166 | +4,022 | Whites | +52,698 |
SFRU5 | 1,320,754 | 1,323,703 | -2,949 | Reds | +37,012 |
SFRZ5 | 1,402,684 | 1,379,914 | +22,770 | Greens | +7,372 |
SFRH6 | 1,044,907 | 1,016,052 | +28,855 | Blues | -1,902 |
SFRM6 | 927,356 | 905,061 | +22,295 |
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SFRU6 | 902,186 | 888,757 | +13,429 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,008,722 | 1,001,283 | +7,439 |
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SFRH7 | 751,723 | 757,874 | -6,151 |
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SFRM7 | 917,444 | 917,772 | -328 |
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SFRU7 | 595,871 | 590,126 | +5,745 |
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SFRZ7 | 590,479 | 590,822 | -343 |
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SFRH8 | 346,329 | 344,031 | +2,298 |
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SFRM8 | 272,866 | 274,676 | -1,810 |
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SFRU8 | 205,145 | 206,383 | -1,238 |
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SFRZ8 | 232,952 | 232,388 | +564 |
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SFRH9 | 153,975 | 153,393 | +582 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- In FX, EURUSD is trading at its latest highs and a short-term bullish outlook remains intact. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. A continuation higher would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Support to watch is 1.1583, the 50-day EMA.
- GBPUSD traded higher last week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The move higher resulted in a breach of resistance at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high. Sights are on 1.3636, the 76.4% retracement of the bear leg between Jul 1 and Aug 1. A break of this retracement would strengthen the short-term bull theme. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3445, the 50-day EMA.
- A bearish threat in USDJPY remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal from Aug 1. This would open 144.58, a trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of this level would be viewed as a S/T bull signal.
US TSY FUTURES: Asset Managers Add To Long While Funds Add To Short
The latest CFTC CoT report showed asset managers adding to their overall net long, while leveraged funds added to their net short.
- A reminder that the cut-off date for the survey was Tuesday August 12, which means that the reaction to the CPI data was captured, but price action and positioning swings in the second half of the week was not reflected.
- Asset managers added to their overall not long position, with net long setting in FV, TY, US & WN futures comfortably outweighing net long cover in TU & UXY futures. The cohort added ~$10mln DV01 equivalent in net long exposure across the curve and remains net long in all contracts.
- Leveraged funds added to their overall net short, with net short setting in every contract outside of net short cover in US futures. The cohort added ~$9.3mln DV01 equivalent in net short exposure across the curve and remains net short across all contracts.
- Wider non-commercial positioning (seen in the table below) saw net shorts extended in TU & FV futures, while they were pared back in TY, US & WN contracts (UXY positioning was little changed). The cohort remains net short across the curve.
Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
