US DATA: Continuing Claims Paint A More Worrying Picture
Jun-12 12:57
Weekly jobless claims data showed another upside surprise for initial claims but with continuing claims offering a notably more concerning push higher in signs of a more pronounced slowdown in re-hiring.
- Initial jobless claims: 248k (sa, cons 242k) in the week to Jun 7 after a marginally upward revised 248k (initial 247k)
- The four-week average increased to 240k from 235k, to its highest since Aug 2024.
- Continuing claims: 1956k (sa, cons 1910k) in the week to May 31 after a marginally downward revised 1902k (initial 1904k). Whilst it’s still the highest since Nov 2021, as claims were falling sharply lower having surged in the pandemic, the recent upward trend is clear to see in the charts below.
- It sees the claims rate, which started to draw some attention last week with a second week rounding to 1.3%, lift from 1.25% to 1.28% for a clearer deterioration.
- The upward trend is borne out in the NSA data as well, pushing above recent ranges having recently been tracking 2017 (one of the higher recent non-pandemic years).
- The 75k increase in NSA continuing claims looks fairly broad-based by state, led by the two largest population centers: 31k came from California and 9.5k from Texas before 8k from Minnesota and 7.6k from Massachusetts.
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STIR: Little Net Change In Fed Pricing Over CPI, 57bp Cuts Showing Through Dec
May-13 12:56
Little net change in Fed pricing in the wake of the CPI release.
- Softer-than-expected to inline headline and core CPI readings countered by the “high” unrounded figures and inline supercore release.
- 2.5bp of cuts priced into Fed funds for June, 10.5bp through July, 27bp through September, 41bp through October & 57bp through year-end. All within 1bp of pre-data levels.
- Market happy to consolidate the tariff reprieve-driven hawkish repricing seen on Monday at this stage, albeit with economic uncertainty remaining elevated vs. normal levels.
MNI: US REDBOOK: MAY STORE SALES +5.8% V YR AGO MO
May-13 12:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: MAY STORE SALES +5.8% V YR AGO MO
- US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +5.8% WK ENDED MAY 10 V YR AGO WK
EGB SYNDICATION: Belgium 5-year Benchmark: Mandate
May-13 12:52
"The Kingdom of Belgium (rated Aa3/AA/AA-; outlook all negative) intends to issue a new EURO syndicated benchmark bond maturing 22 October 2030 (OLO 105) in the near future, subject to market conditions."
- "The Kingdom has mandated Barclays, BNP Paribas Fortis, Citi, Natixis and Société Générale as joint bookrunners."
- "Reg S Category 1, 144A eligible, CAC, FCA/ICMA Stabilisation"
- "The OLO auction scheduled for 26 May 2025 is cancelled"
- We had flagged the possibility of a 5-year OLO syndication in our issuance publications and look for the same E7.0bln transaction size that we saw at last year's 5y OLO launch.
Details as per Bloomberg.
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Dec-05 15:48
