US DATA: Continuing Claims Look To Have Increased Only Modestly Last Week
Oct-10 15:57
- Adding to our earlier comments on initial jobless claims, MNI estimates that continuing claims stood at a seasonally adjusted 1923k in the week to Sep 27.
- That’s crudely using a four-week moving average for some missing states, whilst GS (1924k) and JPM (1927k) are a little higher.
- We tentatively estimate this to have been a second weekly increase in continuing claims from ~1909k two weeks prior in the week to Sep 13. If accurate, the latter would be its lowest since May (and a downward revision from 1926k in the last official data), holding off recent cycle highs in the 1960k’s.
- On the subject of downward revisions, these have been a regular feature of continuing claims data for months now.
- Combined with still healthy initial jobless claims figures when allowing for Texas fraud, and these releases broadly point to a continuation of a low fire, low hire labor market.
- Note that these recent estimates are calculated from state-level claims data released later on Thursday along with already known BLS seasonal factors for national jobless claims.
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US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: Mixed, Dow Off Record Highs, Oracle Lifts IT
Sep-10 15:56
- Stocks are trading mixed ahead midday Wednesday, the DJIA reversing Tuesday's rise to new record high (45,711.34) while S&P eminis and Nasdaq indexes trade off early session highs. Currently, the DJIA trades down 206.16 points (-0.45%) at 45506.82, S&P E-Minis up 31 points (0.48%) at 6552.75, Nasdaq up 95.6 points (0.4%) at 21976.39.
- Information Technology and Utility/Energy sector shares outperformed in the first half, the tech sector led by software maker Oracle - rallying a whopping 42% after announcing it had secured "several billion-dollar contracts in it's latest quarter" the WSJ reported.
- Chip makers further supported the tech sector: Broadcom +9.47%, Arista Networks +6.03%, Super Micro Computer +5.06%, NVIDIA +4.45% and Micron Technology +4.29%.
- Utility/Energy sector shares buoyed in the first half as oil prices rebound (WTI +1.07at 63.70): Vistra Corp +6.74%, Constellation Energy +6.20%, NRG Energy +5.08%, Kinder Morgan +2.21% and APA Corp +2.19%.
- Conversely, Consumer Staples and Discretionary sectors revered prior session gains, the former weighed by Bunge Global -5.00%, Kenvue Inc -3.15%, Lamb Weston Holdings -3.05% and Archer-Daniels-Midland -2.99%.
- Meanwhile, cruise-lines weighed on the discretionary sector: Royal Caribbean Cruises -3.11%, Norwegian Cruise Line -2.98% and Carnival -2.47%.
US: Trump Statement On Russian Drone Incursion Offers Few Clues On Response
Sep-10 15:41
US President Donald Trump's cryptic first statement on the overnight Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace has offered few clues on the US response. "What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
- In the wake of the post, Polymarket registered a spike (27% to 39%) in the implied probability of Trump imposing new sanctions on Russia, likely inferring an acceleration of Trump's recent pivot away from Russia.
- A White House spokesperson told reporters earlier Trump plans to hold talks with Polish President Karol Nawrocki later today. The call comes after Trump pledged to maintain US military personnel in Poland during a White House meeting with Nawrocki last week.
- The drone incursion will add weight to Kyiv's dual requests for fresh sanctions on Russia and additional military aid. As a coordinated US-EU sanctions package is likely to be bogged down by the need for EU unanimity, a package of military aid from Washington could be a more effective lever for Trump to apply pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- The most pressing need for Ukraine is additional missile defence systems and interceptors, both of which are under significant supply constraints in Europe and are critical to repelling a sustained Russian aerial bombardment on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
- Capping a frantic day of NATO diplomacy, Polish PM Donald Tusk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and UK PM Keir Starmer convened for a call a short time ago.
FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.850%(ALLOT 55.20%)
Sep-10 15:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.850%(ALLOT 55.20%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 30.87% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.49% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 63.64% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.26
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