EU CONSUMER STAPLES: CONSUMER STAPLES: Molson Coors (TAP; Baa1/BBB) 3Q results
We said this in the weekly but Moody's upgrading it citing firm results was confusing to us last week - will only look more so on below numbers.
- 3Q sales -8% with volumes -12% and price/mix +4.5%
- Americas (80% of group) -11% (vol. -16%), EMEA & APAC (20% of group) +4% (vol. -3%)
- YTD leaves sales flat
- adj. EBT -9%, YTD +8%
- Gross debt at $6.2b with cash and eqv's of $1b. It's reporting net leverage at 2.1x down from 2.2x last year (targets <2.5x).
- YTD equity pay-outs are $717m vs. FCF of $856m ($280m in dividends and $437m in buybacks)
FY guidance;
- Sales to be -1% on constant currency vs. previous guidance for a LSD increase
- citing US beer weakness for the cut
- adj. EBT MSD increase yoy on constant currency basis (unch)
- Capex to total $750m +/- 5%, underlying FCF $1.2b +/-10% - (all unch)
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US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: More SOFR Puts
Option desks report better SOFR put trade on net overnight, focus on November that expire a week after the next FOMC policy announcement. Modest October positioning ahead Friday's expiration. Current Oct put/call ratios: SFRV4: 1.24, 0QV4: 2.0, 2QV4: 1.89, 3QV4: 1.04. Modest Tsy option volumes leaning towards 10Y calls. Underlying futures trading mixed, short end firmer as curves recover slightly from post-NFP flattening. Meanwhile, projected rate cuts gain slightly vs. late Monday (*): Nov'24 cumulative -22.7bp (-22bp), Dec'24 -49.7bp (-48.5bp), Jan'25 -70.4bp (-68.4bp).
- SOFR Options:
- 10,000 2QX4 96.37/96.62/97.50/97.75 put condors ref 96.66
- 4,000 0QH5 95.12/95.25/95.50 broken put flys
- 4,000 0QV4 96.50 puts ref 96.61
- 1,500 SFRV4 95.68/95.75 put spds vs. SFRX4 95.37/95.50 put spds
- 2,000 2QZ4 96.38/96.50/96.75 broken put flys ref 96.67
- over 6,100 SFRZ4 95.81 calls ref 95.715
- 6,000 SFRX4 96.00/96.12 call spds ref 95.72
- 5,000 SFRX4 95.62/95.68/95.75 put flys, ref 95.73
- 6,000 SFRX4 95.06/95.50/95.68/95.75 broken put condor
- 1,280 SFRV4/SFRX4 95.25/95.50 put spd spd
- Treasury Options:
- 1,400 TYX4 110.5/111.75 put spds vs. TYX4 113.25/114/115.75 broken call trees
- 2,000 TYX4 115.75 calls ref 112-16
- 10,200 Wednesday wkly 10Y 113 calls, 4 ref 112-22.5 to -21.5
GILT PAOF RESULTS: GBP151.6mln of the 0.125% Mar-39 linker sold.
- A total of E250mln had been available.
- This leaves GBP14.621bln of the gilt in issue.
GILTS: Outperforming After Yesterday's Low Held In Futures
Gilts outperform Bunds and Tsys after yesterday’s low held in futures, with no domestic catalysts on hand to force an extension of the recent downtrend.
- 1bp tighter vs. Bunds and 1.5bp tighter vs. Tsys on the day.
- 10-Year gilt/Bunds hit fresh cycle highs yesterday, while 10-Year gilt/Tsys is ~5bp below late Sep cycle highs.
