RUSSIA: Consumer Prices Rise 7.98% Y/Y in September, In Line With Expectations

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 113-26+ 2.764 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing 
• RES 1: 113-21+ High Sep 5
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-17 @ 16:56 BST Sep 10
• SUP 1: 112-28+/112-14+ Low Sep 5 /  20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 111-28+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

Treasury futures rallied sharply higher last week and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The move higher highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This paves the way for an extension through 113-21 next (pierced), the 2.618 projection of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing. Initial firm support to watch is 112-14+, the 20-day EMA.

• Stocks are trading mixed ahead midday Wednesday, the DJIA reversing Tuesday's rise to new record high (45,711.34) while S&P eminis and Nasdaq indexes trade off early session highs. Currently, the DJIA trades down 206.16 points (-0.45%) at 45506.82, S&P E-Minis up 31 points (0.48%) at 6552.75, Nasdaq up 95.6 points (0.4%) at 21976.39.
• Information Technology and Utility/Energy sector shares outperformed in the first half, the tech sector led by software maker Oracle - rallying a whopping 42% after announcing it had secured "several billion-dollar contracts in it's latest quarter" the WSJ reported.
• Chip makers further supported the tech sector: Broadcom +9.47%, Arista Networks +6.03%, Super Micro Computer +5.06%, NVIDIA +4.45% and Micron Technology +4.29%.
• Utility/Energy sector shares buoyed in the first half as oil prices rebound (WTI +1.07at 63.70): Vistra Corp +6.74%, Constellation Energy +6.20%, NRG Energy +5.08%, Kinder Morgan +2.21% and APA Corp +2.19%.
• Conversely, Consumer Staples and Discretionary sectors revered prior session gains, the former weighed by Bunge Global -5.00%, Kenvue Inc -3.15%, Lamb Weston Holdings -3.05% and Archer-Daniels-Midland -2.99%.
• Meanwhile, cruise-lines weighed on the discretionary sector: Royal Caribbean Cruises -3.11%, Norwegian Cruise Line -2.98% and Carnival -2.47%.

US President Donald Trump's cryptic first statement on the overnight Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace has offered few clues on the US response. "What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!," Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

• In the wake of the post, Polymarket registered a spike (27% to 39%) in the implied probability of Trump imposing new sanctions on Russia, likely inferring an acceleration of Trump's recent pivot away from Russia.
• A White House spokesperson told reporters earlier Trump plans to hold talks with Polish President Karol Nawrocki later today. The call comes after Trump pledged to maintain US military personnel in Poland during a White House meeting with Nawrocki last week.
• The drone incursion will add weight to Kyiv's dual requests for fresh sanctions on Russia and additional military aid. As a coordinated US-EU sanctions package is likely to be bogged down by the need for EU unanimity, a package of military aid from Washington could be a more effective lever for Trump to apply pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• The most pressing need for Ukraine is additional missile defence systems and interceptors, both of which are under significant supply constraints in Europe and are critical to repelling a sustained Russian aerial bombardment on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.    
• Capping a frantic day of NATO diplomacy, Polish PM Donald Tusk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, and UK PM Keir Starmer convened for a call a short time ago.