SWEDEN: Consumer Confidence Rises, But Forward Looking Details Still Soft
The Swedish January Economic Tendency Indicator ticked up to 97.7 (vs 97.5 prior). The increase was driven by a rise in consumer confidence (99.1 vs 96.7 prior) alongside services (100.0 vs 98.9 prior) and construction (101.5 vs 100.2 prior) sentiment. Retail sentiment fell a touch but remains elevated at 109.5 (vs 110.9 prior – see our earlier retail sales bullet for more), while manufacturing sentiment was 94.8 vs 96.5 prior.
- The rise in consumer confidence is welcomed after a notable fall in December, but the details are less optimistic. The increase was “mainly explained by an improved perception of their own economic development over the past twelve months”, while “plans for home purchases, home renovations, and car purchases over the next twelve months are significantly more restrained than normal”.
- Business inflation expectations remained below target in at 1.7% Y/Y (vs 1.4% in Q3)
- Expected employees across industries rose slightly for the third consecutive month, underscoring the Riksbank’s view that the labour market will stop weakening around the middle of this year.
- There was a sharp increase in manufacturing expected prices (20 vs 6 prior). More data will be needed to verify if this was an anomalous reading, or a more concrete signal of re-accelerating goods prices. Services and retail expected prices ticked a little lower versus December.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.676 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $28.945 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Flag Formation
- RES 4: 1.4667 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4367 @ 07:52 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4277/4103 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
- SUP 4: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.42779, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Opening call, 92.25.
- Also regarding the timing for the SETT price window, this should happen at 12:13-12:15 (GMT) for Futures and Options.
