US DATA: Construction Spending The First Test Of Shutdown Data (Non-) Releases
The first test of the federal government shutdown's impact on data releases will come at 1000ET when the Census Bureau is due to release the monthly Construction Spending report for August. While there is some uncertainty, it's unlikely to be published.
- The only "confirmation" since the shutdown started last night that we have had of whether data will be published has come from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which posted a notice this morning that it "will be able to operate for a period of time during the lapse in appropriations. Until further notice, the EIA.gov website will continue to be updated, and publications will continue to be released according to established schedules. EIA will continue collecting energy data from survey respondents as scheduled."
- We don't expect any other "official" confirmation of other federal data cancellations, as theoretically there are no non-essential employees at the agencies to available to publish any notices.
- However the individual shutdown contingency plans at the major government agencies each say that there will be no data updates, including for the BLS (nonfarm payrolls, CPI), with the Labor Secretary verbally confirming that there would be no releases in a news show appearance Tuesday.
- For example you have to look under the Commerce Dept's shutdown document to see that for the Census Bureau (which publishes Construction spending): "Economic Indicators: U.S. monthly economic indicators would not be available. " But on the Census.gov site it still shows the data as publishing today.
- The "official" schedules are likely to remain unchanged on the websites until after the shutdown is over.
- The next "test" will be Thursday at 0830 when weekly jobless claims are scheduled. The Department of Labor's shutdown plans suggest there will be no weekly jobless claims reports published. But these were published in 2013's shutdown, as while they were compiled and released by the BLS, they use state-by-state data. Again, we don't expect to get a release this week.
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US: Trump Says India Offers 0% Tariffs, But Getting Late
U.S. President Trump posts the following to Truth Social "What few people understand is that we do very little business with India, but they do a tremendous amount of business with us. In other words, they sell us massive amounts of goods, their biggest “client,” but we sell them very little - Until now a totally one sided relationship, and it has been for many decades. The reason is that India has charged us, until now, such high Tariffs, the most of any country, that our businesses are unable to sell into India. It has been a totally one sided disaster! Also, India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia, very little from the U.S. They have now offered to cut their Tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting late. They should have done so years ago. Just some simple facts for people to ponder!!!"
GBP: Cable tests the immediate resistance
- The Pound is finding some wider demand, at a new intraday high against the Dollar, EUR and JPY.
- Cable is testing the immediate resistance right here at 1.3544 High Aug 22, and Continued upside traction would open back to 1.3595, 14th Aug high.
GOLD: Latest Move Higher Stops Short Of All-Time Highs
The London morning rally in gold topped out around $3,490, with bulls unable to force a test of April’s all-time high at $3,500.10.
- USD weakness, ongoing questions surrounding Fed independence and focus on the potential for a potential impending round of Fed easing supported precious metals early today, before the USD stabilised and bullion moved away from best levels, spot last ~$3,470 still +$22 on the day.
- Bulls remain in technical control, targeting the all-time high mentioned above.
- Conversely, first major support comes in at the 20-day EMA ($3,371.9).
