USDJPY TECHS: Consolidating
- RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
- RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
- RES 1: 137.00 High Jun 29 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 136.00 @ 18:07 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 132.49 Bull channel base from the Mar 4 low
- SUP 3: 131.50 Low Jun 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support
USDJPY continues to consolidate inside its recent range. The outlook remains bullish. A fresh cycle high last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and this maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 137.30, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is unchanged at 134.27, the Jun 23 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards the bull channel support at 132.49.
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USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle Highs As The Bull Trend Resumes
- RES 4: 135.15 High Jan 31 2002 and a congestion area
- RES 3: 134.48 1.236 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
- RES 2: 133.84 High Apr 1 2002 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
- PRICE: 132.58 @ 15:36 BST Jun 7
- SUP 1: 130.43/128.94 Low Jun 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 126.87/36 50-day EMA / Low May 24 and key support
- SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11
USDJPY has resumed its primary uptrend - the pair has cleared resistance at 131.35, May 9 high. The move higher maintains the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and with moving average studies pointing north, indications are that the USD has further to go. The focus is on 134.48, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 128.94, the 20-day EMA.
GLOBAL: Supply Chain Pressures Stabilizing At Problematic Levels
The NY Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) suggests global bottlenecks eased slightly in May to 2.90, reversing most of the tightening seen in April (3.40, which was up from 2.80 in both Feb and Mar).
- The majority of the components in the GSCPI eased in May.
- The NY Fed's overall view is that global supply chain pressures have stabilized "at historically high levels" over the past 3 months.
- The reading suggests little relief for inflation-boosting/growth-suppressing supply chain issues, with Chinese lockdowns a major factor.
Source: NY Fed, MNI
US: Biden's Approval Underwater As White House Focuses On Inflation
The approval rating of US President Joe Biden remains at a near record lows of 40.9 according to pollster Five Thirty Eight.
- This week the Biden administration has engaged in a hard pivot to the economy following the President's op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal last week outlining a new focus on inflation.
- Today, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen took sharp questioning on the role of the American Rescue Plan in catalysing inflation. Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo both admitted to some level of misjudgment in the handling of inflation but stopped short of blaming White House policy.
- Biden will be hoping that a more contrite line from administration officials will engender greater support from an electorate that has been resistant to the White House line that inflation has been due to external forces and beyond the control of the government.
- An ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday showed that a mere 28 percent of voters approved of Biden’s handling of inflation.
